Daily Times

Nowadays, if you hear from your Pakistani brother that our friendship with China is deeper than the Arabian Sea and higher than the Himalayas, you feel sure that he has his finger on the pulse of the internal and external threats to our country. He is sure that our friendship with the US is coming to an end and sees in China an alternative. We have been made to believe that China has an open-ended commitment with us: if someone tries to mess with Islamabad, he will be messing with Beijing. What is the reality?

In Pakistan, ordinary Pakistanis are treated like cattle: they are fed with propaganda about certain things while kept uninformed about certain others. Official statements and public discourse about the Pak-China friendship imply that China has no other state to deal with, it has no principles to guide its foreign policy and that its national interest is to look after Islamabad. Alas, we should have been told that there are no permanent friends and permanent foes in international relations — the only permanent thing is national interest. We should have also been told that there is no free lunch in international relations.

International relations are based on national interests. State A is a friend of state B if there is convergence in their national interests, and in case of divergence they are not. China is our friend not because it is our cousin but because it has eyes on its interests in us. Similarly, we are trying to glue ourselves to China because we see our interests in it.

China’s main interest in Pakistan is regarding its energy needs. China has a growing, energy-gulping economy and it seeks to secure energy reservoirs and routes for the future. Presently, China imports crude oil from its largest source — the Middle East — through the narrow and congested Strait of Malacca between Malaysia and Indonesia. Being too dependent on it, China wants to find and use other routes to lessen its dependency. Indonesia and other regional states, due to fear of Chinese dominance, are tilted towards the US, which may create trouble for China in the future.

Here comes in Gwadar’s importance and China’s main interest in Pakistan. “Gwadar’s strategic location at the crossroads of the global energy trade — opposite the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf — offers Beijing a handy transit terminal for Middle Eastern energy imports,” writes Urmila Venugopalan, Asia editor at Jane’s Intelligence Review. The Chinese have planned that they will connect Gwadar with their mainland either through a railway track or pipeline to transit oil to China. A transit route right from the Arabian Sea through closely allied Pakistan is the most secure shortcut for China. Gwadar will not only serve as a trade station but it will also cement China’s relations with the South Asian nuclear state.

Due to the ongoing insurgency in Balochistan, this project cannot materialise immediately. Given the fact that every day we read news about pipelines being blown up in Balochistan, China is not ready to invest billions of dollars in a restive province in an uncertain environment. China’s all out involvement in Gwadar port will also necessitate its open-ended political commitment to Pakistan for which it is not ready. China also has to weigh the diplomatic costs in terms of its relations with India and the US.

With the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, China may wish to exert influence over Afghanistan and thereby improve the prospects of its control over Central Asian energy resources. For that, again, it needs Pakistan’s help. Pakistan is advocating this argument but China is not ready to show open antagonism to the US as it has always claimed that its rise is benevolent and non-hegemonic.

Now to Pakistan’s interests in China and the fantasies attached to it. Pakistan’s main interest in China is regarding its enmity with India. Having no consideration of China’s relations with India, Pakistanis believe that, if ever India threatens Pakistan, China will immediately go to war against India and that there will be a regional war.

China’s relations with the external world are very complex. “It is less country-oriented and more multilateral and issue-oriented,” writes Wang Jisi, Dean of the School of International Relations Studies at Peking University in Beijing. China supports the West’s stand over Iran’s nuclear programme but, at the same time, it is a key importer of Iran’s oil. Pakistanis know that China has a border dispute with India but they do not know that China is also India’s largest trading partner. By 2015, their trade will go up to $ 100 billion from $ 60 billion in 2010. Pakistan’s trade with China is targeted to go up to $ 18 billion by 2015 from $ 7 billion in 2009.

Pakistan wants to leverage China against India to not only contain Indian influence in the region but also to lessen its pressure on it. But then there is no reason for China to do that. China does not want to unduly antagonise India and push it into the US’s lap. A stable and prosperous India is more attractive to China than an instable and downward-drifting Pakistan. So, is there any reason for us to be mad about China and blind about our failures? China is our best friend and, of course, we should celebrate our friendship with it but we should not forget that it would only remain friends with us as long as its interests are served.

China’s interests are best served in a stable and peaceful Pakistan that is friendly with neighbouring states, especially Afghanistan. China fears that Islamic fundamentalism in Pakistan and Afghanistan might have a spillover effect on its Muslim population in Xinjiang province. That is why, analysts believe, that China is not happy with ongoing developments in Pakistan. “Even China, while strongly supportive in public, made known its concerns about recent developments in Pakistan,” writes Tariq Fatemi, Pakistan’s former ambassador to the US. China’s urge to use Gwadar port also hinges on stability in Pakistan.

Rather than making plans on who we will be dependent on next, we should focus on our internal situation and help ourselves. If we cannot help ourselves, how can any other country help us?

The writer is a freelance columnist. He can be reached at khetranazk@gmail.com