Daily Times

The Indian prime minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, recently called an all parties conference that resolved to form a grand alliance for the purpose of eradicating corruption. One may ask if such an alliance could be formed in Pakistan. The answer will have to be in the negative, because here the government and the party (the PPP) that had sponsored it are themselves believed to be corrupt.

Some observers believe that the present government has to be ousted. Let us take a look at the lay of the land from which an attack on it may be mounted. The PML-N is the largest opposition party, with 88 members in the National Assembly. Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s JUI-F with seven members left the government benches and joined the ranks of the opposition a few weeks ago. More recently the MQM, which has 24 members in the National Assembly, moved to the opposition. A word of elaboration would be in order here. The MQM was a part of the government in Sindh and at the Centre, left it, and then rejoined it several times in the past. Its leaders say that their decision this time is irrevocable, but we will have to wait and see if that remains the case. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that President Asif Ali Zardari will coax them away from active opposition, if not back into his government.

Mr Nawaz Sharif has welcomed the MQM’s move, and in his reckoning it opens the way for the emergence of a grand opposition alliance. It is hard to say how “grand” it will be. Even if it is able to recruit a few unaligned members, it will not amount to much more than 125 members in a House of 342. It is conceivable that it will gather support from a large number of people outside parliament. It will have to tell them what it stands for. It will not be enough to say that the present government is corrupt and incompetent, and that the alliance wants to throw it out. Nor will it do to declare merely that it will eradicate corruption and remove the shortages of electricity, gas, and water that afflict the country. It will have to specify the measures it will take to implement its promises. It is not known whether it has figured out what these measures will have to be.

It will not suffice to remove an existing government. Governments have come and gone without making any material difference to the ordinary citizen’s level of access to the amenities of life. Seven men occupied the prime minister’s office between 1947 and 1958 but no significant social change took place. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto came to power, promising a social revolution. He did give the poor a measure of self-respect and a sense of political efficacy. But he did not bring them any closer to a station where their lives would become more comfortable or fulfilling. He did not give them food, clothing, and shelter (roti, kapra, aur makaan) that he had been promising them during his extended political campaigns.

The formation of a grand alliance cannot by itself assure us that the problems facing the country will be met. These are known to all of us and surely they are known as well to the parties that will compose this alliance. They can publicise the ways of resolving them if they know what these are. Getting together with one another and discussing them collectively will not necessarily make the problems more amenable to resolution. The parties have their spokesmen in parliament where they can initiate discussions on their complexity and the remedies that may be applied. The remedies cannot be devised and applied without the government’s participation. Take for instance the cases of high prices and unemployment. Prices are high because the money in circulation is disproportionately large relative to the availability of goods and services. The government spends lavishly beyond its means, borrows money from lending institutions at home and abroad, and requires the State Bank of Pakistan to print more money. The supply of goods and services will not increase unless the economy expands, manufacturers produce and sell more, and hire more workers. The economy’s performance will depend partly on the government’s fiscal and monetary policies.

The leaders of the prospective grand alliance say they will correct the disequilibrium in the economy that the present government has created. That is easier said than done. The next government’s ability to restore law and order, abolish sectarian polarisation and ethnic conflict, and eradicate terrorism should not be taken for granted. These are extremely tedious and difficult tasks, which will take unwavering will and enormous capacity and a long time to accomplish.

Spokesmen for the alliance have of late been saying that they intend to work within the limits of the law and the constitution. If they cannot remove the present government by permissible procedures, they will continue to operate as a vigilant opposition. The MQM’s divorce from the PPP and its agreement to cooperate with the PML-N will make the opposition in the National Assembly more forceful. It will then be better situated to induce the present government to respect the bounds of propriety.

In conclusion we may submit that the prospective grand alliance is not the harbinger of an alternative government. We cannot be sure that it will press for new elections to be held sooner than their due date, which could be sometime in 2013. Some political observers maintain that the people of this country are so disenchanted with the present government that they would move to oust it if the right man emerges to lead them. His occasional statements to the contrary not withstanding, Mr Nawaz Sharif is not likely to initiate and lead a mass movement to remove Mr Gilani from the prime minister’s house. Many observers in Pakistan feel that Mr Imran Khan is the right man for this enterprise. While he would be a good man to have at the helm, he does not have the organisation that will carry him to that destination.

The writer, professor emeritus at the University of Massachusetts, is a visiting professor at the Lahore School of Economics. He can be reached at anwarsyed@cox.net