Daily Times

The current state of affairs in Pakistan has once again brought the affairs of Karachi to a boiling point. Left unresolved, it can lead to a very dangerous situation that could ultimately destabilise Pakistan. An analysis of events during the past three weeks may help explain why things have taken such a dangerous turn.

About two weeks ago, the MQM decided to quit the coalition government both at the Centre and the province. Earlier too, on a couple of occasions, they had left the coalition only to be wooed back into the PPP fold. This time their departure has a more permanent ring to it and all efforts by the PPP to persuade them to rejoin have failed so far. Why has the MQM taken such a major step at this delicate juncture?

Karachi is the stronghold of MQM and all their actions are aimed at ensuring that their monopoly is not threatened. In the 2005 local bodies elections, MQM swept the polls in Karachi and during the five-year tenure, Mustafa Kamal did an excellent job as Karachi’s nazim (mayor), especially in improving the city’s creaking infrastructure and resolving water, drainage and other problems. His efforts had been widely acclaimed in country and in a number of international forums, which gave a major boost to the popularity of MQM in Karachi. Come 2010, once the five-year tenure of the local bodies came to an end, fresh elections were due, and these were not held as scheduled.

MQM, as the junior coalition partner in the Sindh Assembly, kept insisting on holding of the local bodies elections and the PPP continued to promise that these will be held but kept postponing them on one pretext or the other. By the end of three and a half years of the five years term, the PPP failed to live up to its promise. The substitute system that has been in operation for about a year and a half has performed below par. The inability of the MQM to persuade their senior coalition partner, the PPP, to hold the local bodies elections has started to hurt its vote bank. MQM, realising that these elections will not be held as long as the PPP is in power, has finally decided to part ways. They also suspect that, as the events are turning out, early elections are likely to become inevitable by the end of the current year. By opting out of the coalition, MQM thinks it will avoid the incumbency handicap, given that the performance of the government to date has been less than spectacular, to put it mildly.

Having failed to bring the MQM back into their fold, the PPP has gone on the offensive. It has just passed a bill where the Local Government Ordinance 2001 has been repealed and in its stead, the over 150-year-old British commissioner system has been reintroduced. Now, instead of elected bodies planning, managing the finances and executing development works at the grassroots levels, a set of assistant and district commissioners will be empowered for all these tasks. The control has now passed back to the bureaucrats who are answerable to the provincial government and whose careers are dependant on their assessment and grading. The elected members of the local bodies on the other hand owe their position and hence their loyalty to the local voters rather than to the ministers at the provincial level. The Sindh Assembly, under the PPP, has opted for the commissioners because these bureaucrats can be easily manipulated, as compared to elected members at the local levels. This sudden change of heart by the PPP has further muddied the water.

Meanwhile, the senior minister of PPP Zulfiqar Mirza has started to encourage the breakaway faction of MQM, the Muhajir Qaumi Movement (Haqiqi), currently led by Afaq Ahmed, who is at present under custody, to restart their opposition to MQM. Earlier, Haqiqi leader Amir Khan, who was incarcerated in the Karachi jail, was freed, but he abandoned the Haqiqi group and after seeking forgiveness and swearing allegiance to Altaf Hussain, rejoined the Muttahida. Afaq Ahmed remained defiant. Both Amir Khan and Afaq Ahmed were technically in jail but it was more of a protective custody because if they were freed, they were likely to be targeted by MQM militants. This act of Zulfiqar Mirza to encourage Afaq Ahmed to re-energise the nearly defunct Haqiqi group was tantamount to showing a red rag to the MQM.

In the backdrop of all this is the ISI and the CIA’s falling out since the OBL operation on May 2, 2011. While the two are trying to mend fences, the religious extremists and terror groups are bent upon ensuring that the growing chasm between the Pentagon and the Pakistani armed forces becomes deeper. They also want to create a situation where the relationship of India and Pakistan deteriorates to a level where the two come to blows, as that will force the Pakistani armed forces to deploy all their forces on the eastern front. This will substantially ease the pressure on al Qaeda and Taliban entrenched in areas along the western border.

The triple Mumbai bombing on July 13, 2011 appear to be an act by the terrorists to promote their nefarious design. The same day Zulfiqar Mirza publicly gave a very inflammatory statement against the MQM and it leadership. Karachi, as a result, paralysed on the July 14. Will the situation return to normal or will it deteriorate to a level where the very existence of the country comes under severe threat, is a question many Pakistanis are asking themselves. In the meanwhile, they are keeping their fingers crossed.

The writer is a retired air commodore. He can be reached at jamal4701@yahoo.co.uk