Daily Times

The world environment is often defined in the context of globalization, broadband connectivity, economic prowess and transnational challenges. These trends have altered the geopolitical landscape. States with economic and technological muscle are emerging strong. These transformative trends do signal a change in political orientation, but can it be argued that due to geo-economics and transnational challenges, the world players are more inclined towards cooperation? Seeing the ground facts, economic organizations and security platforms like ASEAN and SCO are reflective of cooperation at regional and global levels. Another angle in this regionally connected world is competition. Herein, it needs to be understood that the regional organizations might carry the agenda of economic integration or security cooperation but in those pursuits, an element of domination is apparent. The political actor having a strong military and stable economy is likely to have more political say in the organization vis-à-vis weak economies. From this, it can be inferred that the politics of confrontation continue to be a part of the world order. The 21st-century geopolitics revolve around the US-China competition. China is fast emerging as the world’s leading economic force. China’s economic clout is no more limited to East Asia rather the country has expanded to other regions. China’s trans-regional political growth is reflective of global power status. China’s economic muscle on the one hand is seen as a stabilizing factor in the Asia Pacific where countries have economic engagement with the former. While, the political standing of China, amidst its economic strength is seen by the smaller regional countries and the US as a challenge. The scepticism is primarily linked to China’s likely assertive posture in future.

The international realm is at the cusp of a new Cold War where China is a premier strategic competitor for the US.

The US-China competition is witnessing an upward trend in the Indo-Pacific region, the region home to the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. China has reached out to the region’s coastal states of the Indian Ocean. China is engaged in consolidating cooperation and interconnectivity within the region through BRI. Regional connectivity will benefit the countries to connect with Central Asia and East Asia. It will also enhance China’s role in the region. These developments will impact the region’s power dynamics, in particular, an economically integrated region might be less vulnerable to extremist tendencies. Another trend in Indo-Pacific is the security alliances (Quad and AUKUS). These alliances are US-led which clearly points towards the regional divide wherein economically the tilt is more towards China but for security, the states are more inclined towards the US. Thus, the US-China competition in Indo-Pacific is modifying the region’s power dynamics. Indo-Pacific is home to three of the world’s major economies, including China, Japan and the US. Cooperative regional approaches can make the region an economic powerhouse. On the other hand, regional antagonism and competitive tendencies might transform the region into a battleground.

The international realm is at the cusp of a new Cold War where China is a premier strategic competitor for the US. The tensions between US and China are following the same trajectory and this conflict has the potential to explode into open hostility which could have catastrophic consequences for the region. According to President Xi Jinping, the US was leading the containment, encirclement, and suppression of China, and China must have the courage to fight back. This strategic competition could have a huge impact on Global South, particularly Pakistan which has close relations with both the US and China. In case of any clash between the two major powers, Pakistan would have to take tough foreign policy decisions. Neutrality is the best option but perhaps an unrealistic one as both the US and China would expect their partners to take positions. According to US Intelligence Annual Threat Assessment Report, the US continues to see China as a major threat to its global interests and wants to keep Pakistan as a key regional player. At the same time, Islamabad cannot afford to distance itself from China as both countries are part of CPEC. In changing international politics, Islamabad must adhere to a stance based on its economic and strategic interests.

The writer is pursuing her MPhil (International Relations) from Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad, and is currently associated with Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)