Daily Times

A document whose very existence was uncertain for a time has made waves in Pakistani politics. Mansoor Ijaz, a Pakistani-American businessman, recently published an article in the Financial Times, alleging that President Asif Ali Zardari feared that the ISI intended to overthrow his government. The president, he added, had asked [former] Ambassador Husain Haqqani to request Admiral Mullen’s assistance in persuading General Kayani to desist from such a move. The admiral says he did receive a memo to this effect but did not take it seriously because of its outlandish content. If it is true that the army chief was planning a coup, he would be open to a charge of treason. If false, the story is intended to create an ugly crisis in this country’s system of governance.

The author of the memorandum solicits Admiral Mullen’s support for replacing General Kayani, the present army chief, with an officer more acceptable to the president and the American government. According to the alleged memo, Mr Zardari also desires to reconstitute the National Security Council and the National Command and Control Unit in order to maintain Pakistan’s nuclear programme with personnel who would be more amenable to American instructions. This was an alleged offer to subvert vital defence-related national institutions to ingratiate the author/s with Admiral Mullen and his associates in Washington even though they had not demanded unbounded Pakistani submission to their will. As one might have expected, the publication of this memorandum raised an agonising storm of protest. It was generally regarded as an act of treason on the part of those who had sponsored it. Political analysts wanted to know whose machination it had been.

The memorandum itself had indicated that the concerns and requests contained in it were those of the highest political authority in Pakistan. That would have to be the president. One has to ask why he wanted to diminish the army as a centre of power in the management of national affairs. It is understood that a bargain for sharing power had been made between the army and the civilian authority years ago. It provided that in addition to administering its own internal affairs and defending the country’s frontiers, the army would make foreign policy with regard to the US, India, China and other major powers. The civilian regime would provide needed services to the people such as the maintenance of public order and tranquillity, education and healthcare. This deal ran into trouble during Nawaz Sharif’s second term as prime minister. But it would appear to have worked reasonably well following General Musharraf’s coup on October 12, 1999.

The identity of the person who had sponsored or authorised this memorandum remains an enigma. Mansoor Ijaz claims that it had been dictated to him by Husain Haqqani, who denies this allegation. His denial is credible. He has excellent command of the English language and is capable of writing elegant prose. The language of the memorandum is pedestrian, tedious, and clumsy. It cannot have been his writing. Nevertheless, and probably for the sake of creating a scapegoat, the government of Pakistan asked him to resign from his post. Mr Mansoor Ijaz is a wealthy American businessman of Pakistani origin. He claims to have access to politically influential persons in the US. But he is not a well known figure in Pakistan, and he may have wanted to break into the Pakistani political scene with a big splash. Mr Nawaz Sharif and his associates have placed the memorandum and related issues before the Supreme Court.

Memogate, as the affair is now being called, has created an extremely troublesome situation. The Supreme Court appointed a commission to scrutinise the contents of this memorandum and the identity of its sponsors. It named Mr Tariq Khosa, a retired police officer of impeccable integrity, to be its chairman. The PPP has launched an angry protest against this move. Its spokesmen have levelled all kinds of accusations against Mr Khosa and his family members, as a result of which he has declined to serve as chairman of the commission. The PPP has virtually declared war against the court. Mr Gilani’s government has been disregarding its verdicts and orders in the past and it has resolved to continue its attitude of non-compliance. It has arbitrarily taken the untenable position that the court did not have the authority to appoint a commission and that it will not cooperate with the one that has been appointed. A collision between the two key institutions of the state has occurred. Jurists agree that the government is on the wrong side in this case, that it is not free to disregard the court’s directions, and that the constitution requires it to carry out all of its decisions. It has also been pointed out that the government’s defiance of the judiciary is liable to create chaos in the country, for it opens the way for the ordinary citizen to evade or disobey judicial authority.

President Zardari, and following him Prime Minister Gilani, are hoping that the storm created by the memorandum will soon subside and become history. This is not likely to happen soon. Political forces in the country other than the PPP have been outraged by Mr Zardari’s presumed role in this affair and some of them, notably PML-N and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), have launched movements to oust him. They may not be able to remove him before his term expires in 2013, but there can be no doubt that his political standing has been badly damaged. It is probable that the next presidential election will not return him to office.

The writer, professor emeritus at the University of Massachusetts, is currently a visiting professor at the Lahore School of Economics. He can be reached at anwarsyed@cox.net