Daily Times

The only explanation for the extraordinary events transfixing, transforming and disrupting global politics today must come from “Alice in Wonderland.” Otherwise, no work of fiction would be seen as credible in describing them. Instead, Alice’s mirror has ensnared Earth.

The planet has fallen not into Wonderland but into Dunderland.

Let us begin this review with only seismic, and not tectonic, events of the past few weeks. Britain has had five prime ministers in the last four years and three in one year. One, Boris Johnson, was found guilty of the most serious offence a member of Parliament can commit—lying to the House of Commons. And the report of the investigation into Mr Johnson’s conduct was so devastating that the former prime minister resigned his seat so he did not have to face the allegations.

Across the Atlantic, events were even more bizarre. The indictment against former President Donald Trump alleged thirty-seven instances of criminal conduct for illegal possession and storage of highly classified material and obstructing justice in returning those documents as mandated by the Presidential Records Act. Trump denies all wrongdoing and argues that as president, he does not have to respect the law.

In a lesser but still influential example, after sending Secretary of State Antony Blinken to China to begin repairing the dismal state of relations, President Joe Biden could not control himself. At a West Coast fundraiser, Biden called China’s Paramount Leader Xi Jingping a “dictator.” Accurate or not, what was Biden thinking? And the meaning of dictator may have been permanently eliminated from the lexicon from what occurred last weekend in Russia.

The planet has fallen not into Wonderland but into Dunderland.

First, it is unclear what happened. What is known so far does not address or bring any clarity to understanding the actions that caused this extraordinary event. Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group “took over” the city of Rostov on the Don presumably to capture the commanders of the Russian special operation in Ukraine. Elements of the Wagner Group then headed for Moscow.

Almost as suddenly as the move on Rostov, Prigozhin halted the advance about 150 miles from Moscow and had his forces reverse course. From seemingly nowhere, Belarus’ President Alexandr Lukashenko intervened to broker a negotiation. Prigozhin would self-exile in Belarus. And he and the Wagner Group would not be charged with treason or other crimes.

Several reasons were offered to account for Prigozhin’s action. Some thirty of his men were killed by Russian forces in Ukraine. Prigozhin was highly critical of how the war was being run by the Defense Minister, Sergey Shoigu and Chief of Staff General Valeri Gerasimov. Prigozhin accused both of treason and failing to supply his men with weapons and other critical logistical support as the Wagner Group was the only effective fighting force the Russians could muster.

Further, the Ministry of Defense had ordered members of Wagner to revert to serving in the Russian military by July 1. These, or a combination were given as reasons for Prigozhin’s actions. But, were they?

In a broader context, was this an attempted coup? Was it an act of pique by a very angry former chef to President Vladimir Putin? Was it a signal and protest against the conduct of war? Or was it a staged and organized ploy created for other reasons?

Second, was Putin strengthened or weakened by Prigozhin and the Kremlin’s reactions? Analysis was predictable by who offered it. Opponents of Putin and the Ukraine intervention were largely unanimous in predicting various scenarios of how his regime was damaged, possibly fatally. A few predicted that Putin would not only survive. They argued he might even gain influence by resolving the crisis so quickly.

Regardless, a combination of harsh and conciliatory rhetoric by the Russian president has followed further confusing the situation. The US and NATO leaders have been sensibly neutral in commenting that this is an internal matter for Russia. But ministries of foreign affairs and defence are working hard on planning for what can come next.

Third, with Russia in possible political turmoil, so too the US could be following suit. With legal proceedings against Trump in train and many Democrats believing Biden is too old for a second term, US politics might not be facing a potential coup. But it is facing what could be a presidential crisis in terms of the trial and the election.

The world has been here before in 1914 and 1939. War is not imminent. But it is surely inside Dunderland.

He writer is a senior advisor at Washington, DC’s Atlantic Council and a published author.