Daily Times

The avalanche of 9/11 shattered the delicate balance of power, producing a cascade of events that are now approaching an end and the world is slowly moving towards a new equilibrium. It is important for Pakistan’s foreign policy planners to understand the diplomatic chess board positions, approach of the players and strategic options available. A superpower has to demonstrate global reach in military, diplomatic, and economic capabilities, enjoy a stable social order and have a vibrant culture. There is only one power that meets these criteria today, which is the US.

Russia, a previous era superpower, does not have the global capability but its military operation in South Ossetia, in 2008, has demonstrated a resolve to safeguard its strategic interests and regional influence. Its economy is heavily reliant on the export of natural resources and lacks depth in the manufacturing base. It has a long history of diplomatic experience in large parts of the world. Its Christian Orthodox culture is unique and different from Europe in language, dress, cuisine and rituals. A large segment of its population, about 80 percent, is Russian, which provides social uniformity. The potential for social disorder exists in the form of discontent among people seeking freedom of speech and political liberalisation as evidenced in the recent election protests. The re-emergence of Putin as the likely president for the next 12 years will give rise to an aggressive and nationalistic Russia. Despite an upward momentum, Russia’s leaders realise that it is not yet ready to assume the role of a global power.

China with its large population, vibrant economy, and entrenched culture is the most likely contender for global superpower status. But China lacks international diplomatic skills, presence in multilateral organisations, and understanding of other cultures. Militarily China is still at least three decades away from achieving global reach. The rise of the urban middle class is exerting social pressure on its existing government structures. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has started the introduction of democracy for electing city officials but it is yet to be seen whether this is enough to satisfy its people. At its current stage of development China understands that it cannot assume the role of a global power. Its leaders realistically define China as the most developed developing nation.

Now if the two likely contenders for a multi-polar world are not ready to stall US influence, then who is? The answer may lie in a Russo-Chinese alliance. The two countries have collaborated in the communist era and can learn from their past mistakes to be more effective this time. In the last decade they have formed economic and political alliances. The only missing piece is a platform for military cooperation. It may not be too far off in the form of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) that is fast emerging as a challenge to the influence of NATO in South and Central Asia. Russo-China will have global military reach and diplomatic influence to create an effective barrier to US influence. The new multi-polar world would be one versus one plus one.

In this new world some countries will play the pivotal role of a bridge between these two power centres. These will be India in South Asia, Turkey in Europe, Brazil in South America, Saudi Arabia in the Middle East and South Africa in Africa. These countries have growing economies, geostrategic locations, and diplomatic goodwill for arbitration of disputes. The rest of the countries will feel increasing pressure to become satellites of one or the other power centre. Multilateral organisations like the UN, the WTO and the World Bank will become platforms for resolving disagreements between satellites.

The recent announcement of US forces’ deployment in Australia, approval of the presence of US bases for 10 years beyond 2014 by the Afghan jirga, increased sanctions on Iran by the west, the Arab Spring and NATO strike on Pakistani soldiers have accelerated hardening of positions for the emergence of the second Cold War. For a Cold War it is important that for each US advantage there is a balancing advantage available to the Russo-China alliance.

In Europe, Russia has successfully stalled the expansion of NATO to include Georgia and Ukraine. In Central Asia it has reasserted its influence through security agreements with the former USSR states and the creation of the SCO to maintain its relevance to Eurasia.

The west’s emphasis on sanctioning Iran will move it into the Russo-Chinese camp that will ease Chinese anxiety over uninterrupted supply of oil in return for a guarantee that Iran will not acquire nuclear weapons. This arrangement will provide a cause for the continued presence of US forces in the Middle East. Israel will be given up by the US as a strategic partner in return for the goodwill of the Middle Eastern masses. Israel would move to the Russo-Chinese side as a balancer to the US influence in the Middle East. US Secretary of Defence Leon Panetta’s comment about Israel’s diplomatic isolation gives an indication of US thinking. The Palestinian bid for a UN seat is another piece in the American strategy. Israel’s military cooperation with China, and diplomatic alignment with Russia, is an indication of the shifting trends.

In South Asia, as the US moves towards India as a strategic partner, it seems it has decided to push Pakistan into the Russo-Chinese camp. Russia and China have gladly accepted this by endorsing Pakistani membership in the SCO and providing diplomatic support after the recent NATO attack. Reduced US military presence in Afghanistan will be balanced by limiting supply routes through the north, thereby creating a Russian influence on every US move.

It may hurt the egos of Pakistanis but we must realise that in the grand diplomatic chessboard we are a piece, not a player. To become a player a nation has to have economic and military independence, social cohesion, and diplomatic reach. This leaves Pakistan with limited options. If it continues on its path of a security state, then the Russo-Chinese bloc would use it as a constant irritant for the US presence in Afghanistan. The other option could be the path chosen by Germany, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia. This would entail an inward focus on the part of Pakistan to embark on a path of nation building. It will be better for Pakistan to try to balance the interests of these emerging power centres and not tilt too much toward one or the other side.

Memogate is an indication of the fragility of our institutions. One person with questionable credentials has destabilised the political environment of the eighth largest nation by population.

The writer is the Chairman Council of Past Presidents, Pakistan Chamber of Commerce-USA. He can be reached at abdul.kundi@gmail.com