Daily Times

The heightened rhetoric between Pakistan and the US has reached a fever pitch after the recent incident that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers on the Pak-Afghan border. The relationship, already beset by accusations, recriminations and threats since the bin Laden killing, seems to have gone into a tailspin in the last few weeks.

Pakistan considers the unfortunate border incident as a deliberate act, part of a ‘plot’, and very nearly as an act of war. Echoing strong public feeling, the Pakistani civilian leadership, probably egged on by the all-powerful military, is increasingly combative in its public pronouncements and actions vis-à-vis the US. Prime Minister Gilani warned the US and its NATO allies that any future cross-border attack would meet with a “detrimental response”, whatever that means.

The Pakistanis generally tend to view the US as an untrustworthy superpower up to its neck in the Afghanistan quagmire and on the verge of defeat at the hands of a ragtag band of ‘holy’ warriors. The Pakistanis are convinced that despite having to rely on their country to pull its chestnuts out of the Afghan fire, the US blinded by imperial arrogance continues to dump on Pakistan.

On the other hand, many US policy makers consider Pakistan a failing nuclear-armed state with dubious democratic credentials that is infested with extremists and terrorists. Pakistan’s anti-terrorism policies are characterised as ‘Janus-faced’, delivering on some goals in fits and starts as the local security forces choose the terrorists they fight and those they coddle. The Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations, an influential think tank, has ranked a conflict with Pakistan among the top potential threats facing the US in 2012.

The Pak-US alliance is akin to a shotgun marriage brought about by the war on terror, otherwise the two countries do not always share the same worldview or the same opinions or the same national interest. The inherent contradictions in the relationship make a ‘hearts and minds’ winning strategy a non-starter at this juncture.

The Pakistanis will continue to view the US as a two-faced ally using and discarding Pakistan as a tactical military tool while strengthening a long-term strategic, economic, defence and nuclear partnership with India. The US, burdened by the cost of fighting two wars in a deep recession, would be hard-pressed to open another front unless a serious terrorist attack can be traced back to sponsors in Pakistan.

What is drowned out in the negative media sound bites is that neither side can afford an acrimonious divorce while there is an absolute need to cooperate on issues like terrorism, Afghanistan and nuclear proliferation. The complex Pak-US relationship must endure in the dangerous environment existing in the region and beyond despite its intrinsic conflict and the present deep schism. Hopefully, Pakistan and the US will see the sense in looking beyond a purely short-term military alliance towards developing and sustaining a long-term democratic partnership.

A sobering reality for Pakistan is that replacing its long serving ‘paymaster’, the US, with ‘all-weather friend’ China will not happen overnight. The enraptured Pakistani media describes China as a relentless economic juggernaut while the US is derided as an almost bankrupt economic basket case. From what we know of the great Chinese success story built on no-nonsense hard work and sacrifice, the Pakistanis should not be under any illusion that China will be an overindulgent ‘sugar daddy’ easily taken for a ride like the often naïve Americans.

Equally, the American policy makers could tone down their public criticism of Pakistan and leave the delivery of ‘tough love’ messages to the State Department professionals in their private meetings with their Pakistani counterparts. The US must understand that the Pakistanis are very sensitive to criticism, having suffered hundreds of deadly attacks and thousands of civilian and military casualties in the fight against terrorism in the last decade. The criticism of Pakistan is especially harmful to the bilateral relationship, as many Pakistanis believe that their weak and ineffectual leadership is slavishly fighting the war on terror on the US’s behalf.

As a start, instead of public criticism and bluster, General Kayani and the new US chief military officer General Dempsey, who were apparently batch mates at Fort Leavenworth, could organise a golf game and rediscover their affection over a cold one. The two omniscient khakis may convey to their civilian ‘masters’ that Pakistan and the US have more in common than just the unclad Veena Malik and Lindsay Lohan!

The writer is a banker interested in history and international affairs