Daily Times

After wandering in the political desert of Pakistan for 15 years, Imran Khan finally seems to be led to the ‘promised’ land of power.

One wonders why all those who used to ridicule and laugh at Mr Khan’s TV talk show sponsored demagoguery for 15 long years have, all of a sudden, during the past six months or so, discovered a messiah in him. Why are the established puppets of the establishment making a beeline to join the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)? Let’s examine.

About a year or so ago one saw news items and analyses carried by some of the Pakistani newspapers disclosing the establishment’s plans that the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) was being prepared for a bigger role in the affairs of the country and that the setup was being so configured that a large number of establishment-steered, seat winning, big players from Punjab would, censuring both the major parties of corruption, misrule and bad governance, start joining the party, thus creating a role for the MQM in Punjab and paving the way for its ascent to the ultimate power centre in Islamabad — its presence having already been stage-managed in Muzaffarabad and Gilgit assemblies to give it a national level party look and feel.

Then, unfortunately for the MQM, Zulfiqar Mirza happened. And with that all the good-intentioned schemes of the establishment went awry. The establishment now needed a new horse to put its saddle on. However, they wanted someone who could take the MQM along, for they did not want to shoot the limping, but still useful, horse as yet.

The establishment had invested a lot in Imran Khan ever since the Zia days. General Hamid Gul, the grandfather of all the spooks in Pakistan, had spent long hours mentoring his protégé and teaching him the tricks of the political trade.

Who can forget the episode in the 1990s when General Hamid Gul, Imran Khan and some of their cronies met with the well-known philanthropist, Abdul Sattar Edhi, and demanded his support in staging a coup against the democratic government of Benazir Bhutto. The poor old man, Edhi, got so scared by idea of the quasi-military revolution that he took the first flight out.

When Nawaz Sharif was sacked in a coup in October 1999, both Imran Khan and his mentor saw an opportunity to enter the pearly gates of the Prime Minister House, only this time, each one of them wanting it for himself. Soon, however, Gul being an experienced player at the political dirty games, realised that there was nothing in it for him and, therefore, distanced himself from the dictator. Imran Khan’s hopes were kept alive for some more time. The establishment used him to such an extent that Imran started rallying support for Musharraf’s regime. He was shown the door later, however, when he demanded the top slot. Musharraf now had to choose between Khan and the MQM. The MQM was more suited to Musharraf’s needs both politically as well as ethnically. Therefore, poor Imran Khan had to leave. The MQM had a field day while Musharraf misruled the country until the dictator’s ignominious exit from power as well as the country.

Meanwhile, Benazir Bhutto is assassinated and as a result of the elections, Zardari gets himself anointed. The Saudi royal’s aversion to the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) in general and Zardari in particular is not hidden from anyone. The Saudi King’s remarks against the elected Pakistani president are on the record. Saudi efforts in the past to dismantle the Benazir governments are no secret either. The Pakistani establishment, historically close to its Saudi counterparts, could not overlook that. With the utter incompetence, corruption and the current PPP government’s indifference to the common man’s problems, combined with the junta’s perceived mistrust of the Sindhis and Baloch, the top brass is being kept on its toes for all the four years this government has been in power.

It was in this context that the establishment started promoting the MQM in Punjab and elsewhere in Pakistan. However, it was soon realised that unlike Sindh, Punjab was too hard a nut to try to crack for the MQM.

Come May and the Abbottabad incident followed by Memogate — a scandal that literally broke the back of the camel. How much Zardari’s involvement is in the affair, only God knows. However, the establishment has got the gift it was looking for. That combined with the likely victory of the PPP in the March Senate elections has hastened the process that was set in motion as soon as Zardari was sworn in. Either through the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) case, Memogate, or under any other pretext, the stars say that this government’s fate has been sealed.

But then who next? Nawaz Sharif, the erstwhile betting horse, having turned on his masters, has lost his utility. The Chaudhries firmly sticking to Zardari and the MOM getting out of the equation due to its failed misadventures in Punjab as well as the Zulfiqar Mirza factor, what choice is the establishment left with except for pumping hot air in the balloon named Imran Khan, a person the establishment had lost hope in due to his lack of political astuteness. An impression is now being created for fair-weather birds, with the induction of known establishment faces that this time, Huma, the proverbial bird of power, is going to rest on Imran Khan’s head.

That the tsunami is coming looks for sure. What will be left of the country after the water tides recede is not known. Neither does it seem to be any of the establishment’s concerns.

The writer is an independent political analyst based in the USA