Daily Times

As Bipjarjoy races towards the coastal city-vast swathes of people in Southern Pakistan, still reeling from the consequences of last year’s floods, now must prepare themselves for another deluge. Rain pelts the shores and skies darken across the Arabian Sea. Meanwhile, dust storms continue to hamper evacuation and rescue work on the land. Currently, it is feared that the cyclone will cause flash flooding as downpours worsen for up to three days-footage from Indian Gujrat shows ferocious winds uprooting trees and blowing away roofs while large parts of coastal regions remain submerged in water.

Luckily for us, the cyclone has likely reached its maximum speed already and is expected to slow down at midnight. Authorities have evacuated 81,000 people from the south-eastern coast and set up 75 relief camps at schools-ships and boats have been docked away, and hospitals put on high alert. There does not appear to be an immediate threat to Karachi’s larger infrastructure but we must remain vigilant.

Research suggests that cyclones formed in the Arabian Sea are only getting stronger and wetter with time as sea surface temperatures rise increased by a remarkable 0.2C in the last decade. Out of five cyclones in 2020, two were in the Arabian Sea. Five of the eight cyclones in 2019 were in the Arabian Sea, a marked shift from the eastern bay being the hub of cyclonesIndeed, Biparjoy’s unusually long lifespan can also be attributed to warmer temperatures in the Arabian Sea, a prime example of how climate change is directly contributing to cyclones moving slower and lasting longer.

Monitoring and forecasting rapid intensification is a challenge, particularly due to gaps in in-situ ocean observations, making it all the more difficult to predict the scale of the damage in the event that disaster strikes.

In the end, it is worth remembering that cyclone genesis is complex and it is challenging to attribute any individual storm to anthropogenic climate change but when an area where cyclonic events have largely been a rarity begins emerging as a hotspot for those same events, we have reason to believe that climate change is the culprit. *