Daily Times

The most authentic and credible touchstone to understand the performance of any government is its success in promoting the well-being and economic profile of the masses as well as the strategies or growth model it adopts to put the country on the path of sustained economic development.

If we apply the foregoing yardstick for evaluating the performance of the PTI and PDM governments, the irrefutable reality is that both of them miserably failed to stem the rot in the economic situation and change the fortunes of the poor, though the elite classes continued to swell their fortunes thanks to pro-elite policy initiatives of both the governments.

The PTI government decidedly did not have a clue in regard to the management of the economy and issues related to governance. The former Prime Minister, before assuming power, had made tall claims about fixing the economic woes and eliminating corruption; claiming that he had a team of experts who could work wonders once the PTI government came into power. But after being in power for one-and-half years, he admitted that he did not know about the gravity of the situation and how the state affairs were run. Consequently, his government made a mess of everything, including the economy. At one point, people had started praying for his downfall; stressed by the hydra-headed inflation that made their lives miserable. His government signed an agreement with IMF belatedly on very harsh conditions and at the fag end of his rule, he defied the IMF conditions by taking populist measures to resurrect his fast-dwindling popularity, creating difficulties for the next government.

Economic experts are of the view that the budget has been structured on the assumption of business as usual, which is a misconception.

It is pertinent to mention that when the PPP made its exit from power, the GDP growth stood at three per cent and when the PML(N) government ended its stint in 2018, the GDP had increased to 5.8 per cent, as per the World Bank report, owing to the implementation of major infrastructure projects and low-interest rates. The major impetus came from the improved performance of the services and agriculture sectors. This was followed by a continuous decline in the GDP with the result that it has come down to 0.29 per cent during 2022-23. It reflects badly on the performance of PTI as well as the PDM government.

The PDM government gave false hopes to the masses about fixing the woes afflicting the economy, controlling inflation and putting the economy back on track. But the reality is that like the PTI government, it has also failed to deliver on these promises. The inflation, which took off during the PTI regime, soured into the skies during the last one-and-a-half year of the PDM government. The failure of the PDM government to clinch a staff-level agreement with the IMF through the ninth review also puts a big question mark on the ability of the government to surmount the economic challenges facing the country.

Now coming to the budget for 2023-24, it is my considered opinion that the growth projections and measures to tackle budgetary and current account deficits are based more on assumptions and expectations regarding future inflows of funds and not premised on firm ground realities, which are make it an unrealistic budget.

Common people do not understand the intricacies of economic concepts and terminologies used to boast about the performance of the government. Their main concern is whether the government has made their lives easier or not. That is the test where the PDM government has fared badly. The budget is an un-puzzled web of manipulative figures.

Economic experts are also of the view that the budget for 2023-24 has been structured on the assumption of business as usual which is a misconception. With extremely low levels of foreign exchange reserves and the IMF cover not available and the looming possibility of default things are not as encouraging as the finance minister tried to make the people believe. There are also serious estimation problems with many key budgetary magnitudes enhancing the possibility of a much larger budget deficit than claimed by the finance minister. That is the biggest debilitating factor in regard to achieving the projected target of 3.5 per cent GDP growth. For the first time in Pakistan’s history, the federal revenue will not be enough even to pay its debt obligations. The government will have to borrow an additional Rs 416 billion just to service its debt.

Even while providing relief to the fixed-income groups like the government servants and pensioners who have been hit hard by the snow-balling inflation, the government has not met the norms of social justice and equality of citizens as enshrined in the constitution of Pakistan. While the serving government servants have been allowed a 35 and 30 per cent increase, the pensioners have been given only seventeen-and-a-half per cent raise. It is the most flabbergasting and injudicious decision.

Civilized nations and governments ruling the state with the mandate of the people invariably show great respect for their senior citizens and take all possible steps to make their lives comfortable as a token of appreciation for the services that they rendered in the development of their countries. They are extended multiple privileges that reflect the commitment of the nation to look after their welfare in consonance with tenets of social justice.

The major privilege and state patronage of the senior citizens particularly those who have been government servants during their life, is a pension that is given to them to ensure that in their old age, they can survive with dignity and respect.

It is difficult to understand the logic behind this unusual callousness. Does the government think that the pensioners have not been affected to the same extent by the sky-rocketing inflation as the serving government employees? Does it think that pensioners live in a different world where they are immune to the debilitating impact of the unusual increase in the cost of living? Are pensioners children of the lesser God or second-rate citizens? The government has surely shown criminal insensitivity to their plight by giving them a rough deal. People were expecting a higher rate of relief for the pensioners than the serving government servants. The Prime Minister and the Finance Minister who never tire of pronouncing their benign credentials laced with the resolve for fairness to all segments of the society from every convenient roof-top have acted contrary to their claims. Do not forget that even the relief provided to the fixed-income groups and masses is likely to be offset by the inflation that will be triggered in the aftermath of the budget.

The writer is a former diplomat and freelance columnist.