Daily Times

A person whom a court has found guilty of contempt may be called a convicted criminal. On April 26, 2012, the Supreme Court (SC) convicted Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani of contempt of court, sentenced him to imprisonment for a few moments (till the rising of the court), which he served right there and then. Some jurists who have studied this case maintain that his conviction disqualifies him from holding public office, that he has thus ceased to be a member of the National Assembly and prime minister, and that he should therefore step down forthwith. He says he will do no such thing. He contends that it is up to the Speaker and ultimately the Chief Election Commissioner to say whether he remains a member of the assembly. It is open to him to request the court to reconsider its decision, but the likelihood is that it will be allowed to stand.

Mr Gilani was convicted of contempt as a result of his refusal to obey the SC’s order to write a letter to the Swiss authorities who had in the past been investigating a money laundering case that involved President Asif Ali Zardari. His position remains unchanged. Had he wished to act in the best traditions of democratic norms, he would have resigned his office the moment the court had convicted him. He preferred to be one of his party’s jiyalas (militant, committed workers) who are not only willing, but also eager to go into combat with their opponents. He has decided to be the only person in the world found guilty of contempt to serve as a country’s prime minister. Most politicians outside the PPP have denounced his decision. Mr Nawaz Sharif, the PML-N leader, plans to lead a series of marches and ultimately, one to Islamabad to compel Mr Gilani’s resignation. His party members initiated their protest in the National Assembly on May 3. A terrible row between them and the prime minister’s supporters ensued. Interestingly, in spite of these events, both houses of parliament passed votes of confidence in favour of the prime minister.

Even in Pakistan, where supremacy of the law remains in question, a convicted contemnor cannot indefinitely remain prime minister. Mr Gilani will have to go and he may depart during the next few weeks, probably after the next year’s budget has been passed. He will have reason to be pleased with himself for he is the only person in memory to have served as the democratically elected chief executive in Pakistan for more than four years. It is likely also that even after his retirement, he will continue to be an important figure in the nation’s politics.

President Zardari will name a person whom the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) appoints as Mr Gilani’s successor. He will essentially be a proxy for Mr Zardari who will take direct charge of the country’s governance. It is assumed that he will try to solve its problems: abolish or mitigate the current shortages of water, electricity, and gas. He will also try to reduce unemployment. He will thus hope to regain the confidence and support of the people in the next election. It is hard to say whether and to what extent this strategy will work. He will have to contend with powerful opponents.

It is a known fact that the PPP and Mr Zardari stand in low popular esteem in Punjab, which is to a considerable extent the Sharif brothers’ territory. Shahbaz Sharif is the provincial chief minister and he is well regarded as an administrator. Mian Nawaz Sharif who wants to be the country’s prime minister is trying to project himself as an elder statesman — moderate, sensible, and slightly right-of-centre conservative. He claims to be a preserver of democracy, and he favours presumably a reformed version of capitalism, privatisation of public enterprises, and a free market economy. He wants to maintain the social and economic status quo. He stands with the judiciary in implementing its verdicts. He expects that his party will do well in the next elections, which he wants to be held as soon as possible.

Both Mr Zardari and Mr Sharif have to contend with Imran Khan who is generally perceived as an honest and upright man who can be relied upon to say what he really intends and tries to fulfil his undertakings. He regards both the PPP and PML-N as abominable defenders of the status quo, which needs to be discarded. If in power, he will try to diminish the adversities that afflict the country even if he cannot abolish them. He will endeavour to bring about a just social order in which the potential of the people can be actualised. It is likely that his party will emerge as one of the major forces in the National Assembly after the next elections. Even if he does not become prime minister, he and his associates will be able to impact the next government’s policies and operational style to a considerable extent.

Where does all this leave Mr Zardari? If his party remains whole and internally coherent, it will have some impact on the workings of the National Assembly. His own term as president expires in 2013. This change of status may result in reducing his control over the PPP and its key figures. He is enormously wealthy and his willingness to spend some of his money to keep his fences in good repair may stop or slow down the tide against him in case it does develop. But the likelihood is that after the end of his present term, he will not be reelected, and that his days of grandeur and glory at the public expense will have gone beyond recall. His friends, if he has any, will have to console him with the maxim that all good things must come to an end some day.

The writer, professor emeritus at the University of Massachusetts, is currently a visiting professor at the Lahore School of Economics. He can be reached at dranwar@lahoreschool.edu.pk