Daily Times

What is Pakistan’s foreign policy regarding the Middle East following one year of the Arab Spring? Firstly, we have to define what is the Middle East. Some people consider the Arabic-speaking people, including the countries of North Africa, as the Middle East. The Arabic-speaking people of North Africa claim to be the descendants of the Pharaohs in Egypt while others claim to be the descendants of Berbers. Some also include Turkey, Iran and Afghanistan as part of the Middle East. For this article, let us take the Arabic-speaking area as the Middle East.

The Arab Spring starting in Tunisia one year ago shook the traditional long-standing dictators/kings in the Arabic-speaking world. The movement was peaceful in some countries while it was an all-out war in others (Libya, Yemen and Syria). In all cases, the transition from dictatorship to democracy will not be easy and one year on, people and former rulers are finding the new system difficult to digest. What is common is that many of these states are falling back on Islam for an ill-defined system of governance. There are also strong tribal links in many Arab countries and that is anti-democracy. Many Arab countries saw monarchs fall only to be replaced by lifelong repressive dictatorships with no change in the lives of the people. Led by the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, the Arab Spring is now resurfacing in many Arab countries. Let us hope the present change does not lapse into a new form of dictatorship based on religion.

Operation Unified Protector launched air attacks in Libya to ‘protect civilians’ threatened by Gaddafi’s army on March 27, 2011 by 14 countries under the NATO umbrella. For the US, the cost was $ 1.1 billion. It is significant to note that NATO did not lose a single soldier in the campaign where aircraft and drones were used (Daalder, Ivo H and Stavidis, James, ‘NATO’s victory in Libya’, Foreign Affairs, March/April, 2012). This may be the future of warfare. After more than a year of the removal of Gaddafi, Libya is drifting into chaos. Tribalism and warlords have not allowed federalism to take root (Pack, Jason, ‘Federalism in Libya: tried and failed’, Cutting Edge, April 26-May 2, 2012).

It has been claimed that Qaddafi fed many of our past and present leaders with dollars. Perhaps this is the reason why we still have Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore. Pakistan’s interest in Libya is more than oil. During the upheaval of the anti-Gaddafi movement, we were told that hundreds of Pakistani workers were uprooted. We need new job opportunities under the new Libyan government.

Tunisia has the al Nahda Islamic party in the governing coalition after the ouster of Zine el-Abidine Bin Ali. However, the Salafi group is out to use force to get power. In Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh was removed from power and the country is presently facing al Qaeda attacks. In Libya, Muammar al-Gaddafi was killed. In Bahrain, the House of Khalifa is under threat (Ajami, Fouad, ‘The Arab Spring at one’, Foreign Affairs, March/April, 2012).

The Egyptian spring managed to get Hosni Mubarak out but his military is still in command; their spring is still not at an end and the gestation period is continuing. Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood, Salafi groups and other pressure groups are jostling for power. The Egyptian army (Supreme Council of the Armed Forces) is the most powerful group, used to ruling the country, and it is not going to give up easily its powerful hold. The army has built a huge commercial empire and needs to keep it intact (Mousa, Sarah, ‘The return of Tahrir?’ Cutting Edge, May 3-9, 2012). After the first free presidential elections (May 24-26) in Egyptian history, two candidates have emerged. The run-off presidential election is now between the Mubarak-era prime minister, former air marshal Ahmed Shafiq, and the Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammad Morsi. The final outcome is hotly debated. Many feel the two candidates are unacceptable since one is a Mubarak man and the other wants to impose an Islamic government in a multi-religious society. There are also cries of foul by losing candidates. Behind the scenes, the army is still all-powerful, ruling through the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. Although the catalyst for change was the uprising of the people of Egypt, it was an army coup that finally removed Hosni Mubarak. In Syria, only an army coup can remove President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, but by now, the opposition has been militarised and a lot more bloodshed is expected. We can only speculate what form of democracy shall finally emerge in a Middle East used to kings and dictators. The core issues of unemployment, corruption and soaring prices have been lost in the din of the Arab Spring.

The Arabic-speaking world has a long history of oppressive kingdoms, which are still continuing in some countries. In 1516, the Turks created the Ottoman Empire. At the turn of the 20th century, the Middle East experienced the Great Arab Revolt against the Turks followed by ‘liberation’ under kings. In the late 19th century, Jamaluddin Afghani declared kingship as un-Islamic. For that, he was kicked out of India and proceeded to Egypt from where he was again deported to Turkey with the same result. He finally ended up in France, and eventually in Russia. In recent times, a book by a non-Muslim, George Antonins’ The Arab awakening, published in 1938, has been a source of inspiration. More recently, a book by Gene Sharp, From dictatorship to democracy, first published in 1993, has had an impact on the Arabic-speaking world even though the setting is in a non-Arabic world. Sharp has recommended in detail non-violent means to topple dictators.

(To be continued)

The writer can be reached at farakh60@hotmail.com