Daily Times

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) held its summit in Chicago from May 19 to 20. As expected at the end, it came out with resolutions confirming the plan to wind down combat operations in Afghanistan and endorsing the US exit strategy. Though the US-designed exit strategy calls for withdrawal of combat troops through 2014, sensing the mood of some members of the alliance, it was agreed that each nation would determine its own pace of withdrawal in coordination with coalition partners. Hardly had the ink of signatures dried, the newly-elected French President Francois Hollande flew to Kabul and announced that the French troops would leave Afghanistan by the end of this year. President Hollande reportedly told President Obama a few days prior to the NATO summit his intention to withdraw from Afghanistan much earlier than the deadline prescribed by the United States. President Obama declared shortly after the summit that the alliance was committed to bringing the war in Afghanistan to a responsible end and that the leaders of the alliance have a clear road map for it.

The war in Afghanistan was not handled well by the previous US administration. They wanted a quick victory and the Pentagon gave a similar assessment. Donald Rumsfeld, the then US Defence Secretary had claimed in October 2002, “The Taliban are gone, al Qaeda are gone.” The US military leadership truly believed that the Taliban and al Qaeda had been destroyed, lost the strength to regroup and pose any challenge in future. The US administration therefore turned their attention to Iraq, gradually withdrew troops from Afghanistan and redeployed on the borders of Iraq as a prelude to the Iraq invasion. The absence of good governance, resurgence of former warlords and corruption paved the way for the return of the Taliban and their regrouping in the hills and mountains of Afghanistan. The Taliban have gained sufficient strength and are now capable of hitting targets right in the capital Kabul at a time of their choice. The Pentagon has recently admitted that in the past 10 years, 1,851 US soldiers were killed and 15,000 wounded in Afghanistan and the numbers are on the rise. The casualties of other NATO countries are about 1,000 killed and 8,000 injured. The Afghan security forces suffered a loss of 10,000 personnel. The growing casualties and the economic toll have turned the people of the United States against the war in Afghanistan. At present over 66 percent of the population are in favour of a complete withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. Public opinion in Europe about the war is not any different. Canada wanted its troops back home by the end this year but its prime minister was persuaded to stay longer. Australia wanted its troops’ withdrawal much earlier but decided to keep them a little longer. German troops are in the north western region, a comparatively less troubled area, but still, its government does not want to keep them any longer than necessary. President Obama understood the sentiment of the people at home and abroad, and promised to withdraw troops by 2014. In the press conference following the NATO summit, he went a step further to bring the war to an end in the next two years. This is possible, but has the groundwork been done?

The Taliban is a party to the conflict and the war will continue until an agreement is reached with them. The Qatar round of talks has apparently failed and there has not been any indication when and where the second round of talks would take place. Meanwhile, the Taliban have announced the spring offensive and launched several attacks in different parts of the country. President Obama admitted that the “Taliban is still a robust enemy but it would be good enough to leave an imperfect Afghanistan so we can start rebuilding America.” The NATO plan to wind up in the next two years would induce the people of Afghanistan to slowly fall in line with the Taliban. The Afghan security forces would be unable to resist the advance of the Taliban. Afghanistan might again fall under Taliban rule once NATO pulls out. This underlines the importance and urgency of a diplomatic solution of the Afghan quagmire. It is of paramount importance for the United States and the European allies to evolve a joint strategy, meet with the Taliban and come to an agreement on the future governance of Afghanistan. The State Department and the Pentagon know well that Saigon fell to the advancing Vietcong in 1975 while the peace talks, lost in substance, were still going on in Paris. In the absence of a comprehensive agreement, the US and NATO’s plan to wind up the war would be a prescription to lose all the gains made in Afghanistan during the past 11 years.

(To be continued)

The writer is a former international civil servant, a former UN official and a freelance columnist. Currently based in the US, he can be reached at rahman.chowdhury@yahoo.com