Daily Times

In my column of last week I ridiculed the fashionable argument, much touted these days in the media and by certain political parties, that we should tell the US to get lost because we can easily do without their aid.

I did so because, I think, those arguments are — as is so much of our thinking and public discourse — maddeningly disingenuous, grossly one-sided and misleading for the public, and little more than wishful dreaming. And that makes their wide acceptance highly dangerous and a recipe for national disaster. I therefore make no apologies for revisiting the subject today (but with a little twist in mind!).

Next, how often have you heard those very worthies — in the same breath — angrily demand from the government ‘concrete and realistic steps and policies’ on this or that issue, etc, etc? Bravo! I heartily approve of a thinking that seeks ‘concrete and realistic steps’. But why can they not apply that same logic to their arguments on the economic issue? How can I best show up this disconnect? I have a plan.

But first, a brief recap of the argument again, and my rejoinder.

The Kerry-Lugar aid is $ 1.5 billion a year (of which, so far, we have seen very little). Anyway, experience tells us most of it gets sucked back to the donor country. The US is also behind in reimbursing us (under the Coalition Support Fund) for the cost of the war we are fighting on its behalf, not to mention accusing us of grossly padding the bills. Are these ‘peanuts’ (to use a famous phrase from the past) really worth ‘the slavery’, the insult to our self-respect that is the brazen violation of our sovereignty, the fighting of a war that is not ours, and the death of over 30,000 of our people? Anyway, all we have to do is plug the black holes of Rs 800 billion corruption in the FBR and a similar amount due to corruption and mismanagement in the state-owned enterprises, raise our tax to GDP ratio, and cut government expenditure. Presto! We will be self-reliant. And, of course, home remittances will boom.

So why are these arguments disingenuous, grossly misleading (because they do not give the public the full picture), and little more than wishful thinking (as opposed to ‘concrete and realistic’)?

Now, if we were talking of only $ 1.5 billion of aid, I might swallow the argument. But there is no mention of the billions in aid given to our armed forces (and do not forget to ask them if they can do without that largesse); the $ 11 billion committed by the IMF to support our reserves; the World Bank and ADB loans; and the hundreds of millions (if not more) of bilateral aid from other countries who all follow the US lead, not to mention the annual rescheduling of already matured loans by the Paris Club and others. And that list is by no means exhaustive. Have our worthies totted up these figures when they talk of rejecting aid?

Incidentally, you know what I find most amazing? All these brilliant people seldom seem to discuss (and that too only in an airy-fairy way) what potentially should be their strongest argument. What should one infer of their intellect from this observation of mine? Anyway, being scrupulously fair, I will throw it into the pot myself. That argument is the overall cost to our economy of this war. Recent official figures suggest that to be nearly $ 70 billion, though I have my doubts if the true number, though substantial, is anywhere near that.

Anyway, it is not my intention today to discuss this matter (it is complicated) and related issues such as ‘our war or not?’ I want to stick to the basic issue of can we or can we not, in the position we are, do without aid?

But before I tell you of the twist in the tail I have in mind today to bolster my rejoinder, I am going to indulge in my usual digression. I am going to talk about James Randi (as I have done before, in a column many years ago entitled ‘Wannabe a Millionaire?’). And that is not as pointless as it may appear.

Randi is a venerable American professional master magician who has devoted the past many decades of his life putting to work the adage, “It takes a thief to catch a thief.” With his deep knowledge of the tricks of his trade, he relentlessly exposes those who, through claims of extraordinary powers (such as extra-sensory perception, clairvoyance, spoon bending, etc) seek to prey on a gullible public.

Some two decades ago, he issued an open public challenge and put his money where his mouth is. He set up a trust fund (current value, over $ 1 million) that would pay out the full amount to anyone who would demonstrate any such power under mutually agreed, publicly observed, and carefully controlled conditions. Many have tried. All aspirants have failed at the first hurdle.

What is the relevance of this story? Inspired by Randi, I offer my own public challenge to all those offering us those easy and simple solutions to our economic woes. I wager my modest Rs 1 million (more, if anyone so desires) to half that amount of theirs, that not one — yes, not a single one — of their suggestions are realistic and achievable, say within the next three years.

But no ifs and buts, no conditions, and no hedging (such as ‘if we are voted into power’, ‘provided that…’, etc, etc). We will need to agree on specific targets (such as raising tax to GDP ratio to say 13 percent; or reducing losses in the state-owned enterprises by, say, a cumulative Rs 500 billion, etc). For, my whole point is that we need to live in the real world and distinguish between the ‘possible’ and the ‘probable’. Those numbers on corruption and losses may not be in dispute; what is in dispute is whether it is realistic to assume they are achievable in the short-term to serve as a basis of policymaking now.

Yes, it is great to identify the possibilities on which we need to work. And here it is worth noting that, for all the brickbats hurled at the present government over the past three years over the state of our economy, many of the positive things it has done quietly have not had the media attention they deserve and have been unfairly ignored. Given its inheritance, and the economic maelstrom gripping the world when it took office, it has taken many an important step to improve our future economic prospects. This is not the place to discuss this matter, but I am thinking of such steps as gradually reducing many subsidies (and concurrently reducing inflation from those highs of 25 percent), the BISP and Watan Card schemes, and the probable addition of another 700,000 people to the tax net this year (as announced recently by the finance minister).

So, let us not forget that we have a war on our hands which — once again — let us not pretend will be anything other than a long-drawn out and resource stretching exercise. The public needs to be educated about that tough reality, not fed a misleading diet of illusionary wishful thinking.

The writer is a businessman. A selection of his columns is now available in book form. Visit munirattaullah.com