Daily Times

The Supreme Court (SC) verdict came like a bombshell for the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Prime Minister (PM) Yousaf Raza Gilani. In fact, the verdict was not anticipated given the barrage of allegations coming out of the fraud involving the Chief Justice’s son Dr Arsalan Chaudhry. At the most, it was guessed that the court would refer the matter to the election commission directing it to de-notify the PM. Nevertheless, the decision of the court disqualifying the PM caught the government off guard, and the party bigwigs huddled to chalk out the next course of action. Instead of creating a fuss to up the ante against the judiciary, the verdict was accepted quietly, although with reservations to put across the party’s point of view. The environment was gripped with uncertainty as to who would be the next candidate for the post of prime ministership given the delicacy of the issue involved. Whoever would become the PM is sure to offer himself to be sacrificed at the altar of the PPP co-chairperson’s alleged case. The ‘Swissgate’ will haunt the next top man in the executive; hence the aim of the presidency seemed to be to ensure bringing forward a man who would swear unquestioned loyalty, refusing to write a letter to the Swiss authorities, no matter what the court opined and directed. The position of the PPP is very clear on the issue: that it is according to the constitution that the government is not going to write a letter to the Swiss authorities to deprive the president of immunity preserved and sanctioned by the highest law of the land. Now the calculation is like the writing on the wall that the next round of confrontation is brewing up between the judiciary and the executive, pitching both against each other on the same turf, although with some fresh ammunition. The courtroom number one had set the fresh date for the NRO case on the day when the election of the PM took place, which meant that Mr Ashraf would be on a tight leash right from the word go. The new PM has been directed to submit a written reply in the NRO case on July 12, conveying to him that the taste of power is not going to be honey-sweet. The election of Raja Pervez Ashraf stands on thin ice to begin with. His involvement in the rental power project case has earned him the bitter title of ‘Rental Raja’, casting a negative light on him even before taking on the mantle of PM. The process of negotiations among alliance partners proved the point once again that all is not well in the politics of the coalition. Some saner heads and with a measure of good repute were compromised in order to placate the partners in the enterprise of running the country.

Politics is going to take many twists and turns in the wake of the SC decision, but legalese are going to get more complicated, becoming the subject of a heated debate. The dismissal of the elected PM as per directions of the apex court is hard to stomach for the politicians as well as many neutral observers. People have gone to the extent of terming the whole affair as a ‘soft coup’, or more bluntly, ‘a judicial coup’. This is a matter of serious debate as to how the SC should have exerted its authority flouted blatantly by the PM, but at the same time, it is an issue of grave concern as to what the future holds for the civilian setup in the country if it has to contend with another unelected force. Previously, it was generals who were always found breathing down the necks of politicians, but now precedence has been set whereby judges would also be seen as a sword of Damocles hanging above the heads of the elected representatives. On the other hand, the judges get it right when the executive gives them a cold shoulder and refuses to abide by the decisions arrived at after a thorough inquiry and fair trial. The nub of the matter is that the institutional balance between the executive and the judiciary stands severely shaken and needs to be put on a sound footing. The stakes are high and the decks are loaded, and in such a fluid but at the same time charged environment, any further confrontation will be beyond the expected cost.

The PPP is trying to gird up its position in the face of the Gilani disqualification and seems to be going out of the way to get the allies on board. Having given up on prime ministerial candidates with measurably unblemished credentials to curry favour with the Chaudhries of Gujrat, it has gone a step ahead by creating the slot of deputy prime minister and doling out to the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid 15 cabinet berths. The elections are a matter of a few months, therefore the government is hedging all its bets to save face at the hustings. Mr Ashraf has decided to throw himself and his political career on a roll of the dice for the sake of his party boss, but the fate of Mr Gilani will serve for him as a signpost as to what is the compensation for such a sacrifice. The jury is already out to predict the future of the former premier even within the party, for the past stature is buried with the man when things go from bad to worse. The nomination of Abdul Qadir Gilani — Mr Gilani’s son — to contest the by-polls from the ill-fated constituency rendered vacant after the court verdict is a favour to the former PM, but his long-term relevance and influence in the party is quite uncertain. For now, everything is hanging in the balance; the dust will settle once this government completes its tenure and clears the way for the next elections. The decision of the court will remain a burning issue, as the next prime minister will be in the dock pertaining to the Swiss cases against the president. The government and the judiciary are going to collide again keeping the political pot boiling in the country, with the masses keeping their fingers crossed, facing problems in all walks of life.

The writer is a lecturer in the department of politics and international relations at the International Islamic University and can be reached at arshad.abbasi@iiu.edu.pk