Daily Times

US-led NATO forces are reportedly deploying in strength on the Afghanistan side of the border opposite Noshki in Balochistan for a possible military operation against the Taliban. The Taliban, ensconced around Noshki and its adjacent areas, Sar Lath and Shorawak, are under the command of Mullah Omar. Could this mean that the US has decided to crack down on the Mullah Omar-commanded Taliban before taking on a major initiative in the eastern provinces of Afghanistan where the Haqqani network is in control? If that is the case, it suggests that the hoped for negotiations between the Taliban and the US have eventually failed. The peace negotiations that were planned to be held in Qatar last year saw the US and the Taliban edging closer to talks on many occasions, but the Taliban’s demand that the US release some of their important leaders from Guantanamo prison had proved a sticking point even at the initial stage. The latest US/NATO concentration of forces in southern and south-eastern Afghanistan might be a signal that the negotiations are now a closed chapter. A resolution moved in the US Congress to declare the Haqqani network a terrorist organisation was being resisted by the White House on the basis that so long as there was a chance of the negotiations with the Taliban bearing fruit, no step, such as declaring the Haqqani network a terrorist organisation, should be taken in case it derailed that effort. If the possibility of a dialogue with the Taliban has now receded, the way seems clear, theoretically at least, for an all-out military campaign, one that could possibly spill over the border to take out the Taliban’s safe havens inside Pakistan.

Pakistan is having to swallow the bitter pill of increasingly frequent cross-border attacks when the Pakistani Taliban, sometimes in their hundreds, have attacked our security forces on the border, of which the latest horrible beheading of Pakistani soldiers in Dir has put the seal on a threat we have been warning frequently about in this space. Three of such attacks in the space of one week finally seem to have rung alarm bells in our defence and security establishment. As a result, COAS General Kayani demanded of NATO a clear, decisive and workable solution to the border violations into Pakistan from Afghanistan. The opposite has been sought from Pakistan since long. The preparation of a US/NATO military operation in this context could be seen as a sign of giving in on peace and reconciliation and taking the non-state actors head on, which constitutes a concession and realisation of the dangers by Pakistan. If that is the case, it could mean Pakistan has finally decided to renounce its policy of duality to bring peace to the country. It may, on the other hand, be wishful thinking that a change of heart and strategic posture on the part of Pakistan is now a reality, our strategic planners having invested so much time, effort and resources on the dual policy.

The time for the US/NATO to leave Afghanistan is drawing closer but the terrorism that brought the US and its allies to Afghanistan, though relatively weakened, is far from overcome. Over the last 11 years, the Taliban have grown and spread to be variously described as ‘good’, ‘bad’, Pakistani, Afghan, Punjabi, and what not. Unfortunately most of these factions and/or their origins can be traced back to the flawed policies of the Pakistani establishment. This development has turned Afghanistan as well as Pakistan into a bleeding wound. Though the situation in Afghanistan is more serious, we in Pakistan cannot ignore its spillover effects. To overcome a continuation of civil war in Afghanistan and terrorism in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, it is high time for Pakistan to put the situation in its correct perspective and redouble its efforts to combat terrorism and finish it off once and for all. *