Daily Times

The man on horseback used to be a favourite term for a sturdy, wilful, ruthless and authoritarian claimant to the throne. A man answering this description, namely Asif Ali Zardari, currently answers this description. The constitution says he will reign but not rule. Through his control over the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), he can designate a person as prime minister who would do his will unquestioningly. Appearances suggested that he had found such a man in Mr Yousaf Raza Gilani. Certain insiders claim that he did not always obey the president and that there were occasions when he made decisions of his own even if they were contrary to Mr Zardari’s preferences. In any case, Mr Gilani had to step down from his office recently because the Supreme Court, and then the Election Commission, declared him to be ineligible to hold public office, including membership of parliament. President Zardari nominated Raja Pervez Ashraf to replace Mr Gilani, and the National Assembly elected him the leader of the house, and thus the prime minister, by a good margin. What do we know of Raja Pervez Ashraf and how may we expect him to perform? It will be seen that far from being the man on horseback, he is the occupant of a donkey cart.

Prior to his election as prime minister, Mr Ashraf served as the minister for water and power in the preceding government. The former prime minister, Mr Gilani sent him away twice but then took him back. On several occasions during his tenure at this post, he promised the nation that additional sources of power would be made operative and load shedding stopped before the end of 2010. Two years have gone by and the end of load shedding is nowhere in sight. An acute shortage of power is the country’s most grievous crisis. It can make or break the ruling party in the next election, which may be only a few months away. It is highly unlikely that Mr Ashraf will do in the next six months what he was not able to do in his previous office.

The people of Pakistan are afflicted with several backbreaking problems because of the power shortage. Sky-high prices of even the essential necessities of life have made far too many of them destitute. They cannot provide adequate amounts of reasonably nutritious food to their families. They remain malnourished and susceptible to all kinds of ailments including Tuberculosis, which is said to be widespread in the rural areas. These agonising problems cannot all be abolished but their intensity can surely be diminished. This would happen if the ruling classes, particularly the government of the day, cared and were willing to make the requisite exertions to relieve the people’s misery.

As I have suggested above, one version of the recent political developments has it that Mr Ashraf will be prime minister in name only, and that President Zardari will actually make all necessary decisions. He has been stable and effective in the office he holds. He is admittedly an astute handler of men who are infirm enough to be susceptible to manipulation. He is an efficient manager of his party and in that he has been helped by the fact that the constitution allows him despotic control over its nominees in parliament. Consider also that quite a few of the party notables have profited from their association with him and he can rely on their loyalty.

Mr Zardari has been a good party manager, albeit only in the sense that no revolt against his leadership has surfaced. The PPP is the largest political party that maintains its presence in all parts of the country. As an organisation, it is in a bad state. Mr Zardari has not given it an ethos or a sense of mission. He claims to be implementing the legacies of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto. One cannot be sure that he understands the meaning and import of these legacies. His policies and actions do not confirm his claim. We do know that he has sent away persons who were close to Benazir and surrounded himself with those whom she did not trust.

Mr Ashraf’s government appears to be weak and ineffective in all ways of reckoning. There is no likelihood of it being retuned to power after the next elections. Seeing that it has fallen low in public esteem, its supporters in smaller parties may abandon it. It cannot be said that Mr Ashraf has any better understanding of the Bhutto legacies. It may be assumed that he and Mr Zardari will act as the spirit moves them, and that it will move them primarily towards self-aggrandisement. Neither of them is interested in governing, which involves not only the maintenance of law and order but also attention to people’s problems. It calls for self-denial and a lot of exertion on the rulers’ part.

Mr Ashraf’s stay in office will be fairly short, probably no more than six months. He will have to yield to a neutral person who can be relied upon to ensure that the forthcoming election will be fair and honest. The PPP will have little to show the voters by way of accomplishments during more than four years of its rule. Mr Zardari is hoping that Mr Ashraf will write something gratifying on his party’s blank slate. This will be a tall order. A severe shortage of electricity is hounding this country. He is being cautious in promising relief. He says his government cannot cure the problem but it will do all in its power to diminish its intensity. Optimistic observers hope that load shedding may be reduced to eight hours a day in the cities and to 12 hours in the rural areas. It may be more realistic to go with the sceptics who think we should be grateful to God if the prime minister does not worsen the present state of affairs, let alone improve it. By interest, those in the lower echelons will probably be motivated to do the same.

The writer is professor emeritus at the University of Massachusetts and can be reached at anwarsyed@cox.net