Daily Times

The understanding reached between Pakistan and the US on re-opening of the NATO supply routes after more than a seven-month disruption, in the backdrop of the Salala attack, is a welcome development, to say the least. This episode has beyond any doubt acted as a catalyst in recalibrating the nature and scope of relations with the US in the context of war on terror. Pakistan has been able to send a loud and clear message that the US cannot take it for granted any more, and continue with its unilateral actions to the detriment of Pakistani interests. It is a triumph of diplomacy and the unity and perseverance shown by the civilian and military leadership in resisting the US pressure. Although, the US has not used the word ‘apology’ as demanded and insisted by Pakistan, yet saying sorry, agreeing to mutually agreed drone attacks on the basis of shared intelligence, release of the held up Coalition Support Fund, the assurance not to repeat Salala like incidents and refraining from the rhetoric to do-more represents a climb down by the US from its earlier rigid stance on the issue. This will undoubtedly help Pakistan in resurrecting some of the sovereignty surrendered by the Musharraf regime. That was the best Pakistan could achieve in the given circumstances.

The rapprochement may have ended the rift between Pakistan and the US on the issue but the government seems to have landed into yet another quagmire on the internal front. The decision by the Difa-e-Pakistan Council (DPC), Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) to resist the re-opening of NATO supplies and the vow by the local Taliban to attack the NATO containers poses a dilemma for the government that will test its resolve to stand by its understanding with the US. Whatever the outcome of this confrontation, the truth is that the elements opposed to this re-engagement with US are incapable of seeing beyond their noses. They lacking the vision and ability to look at the broader picture are actually trying to gain political mileage out of this issue by playing on the public sentiment, making use of clichés like national honour and patriotism. Dr Samuel Johnson, arguably the most distinguished man of letters in the English history, best explains their conduct in these words: “Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel. Nowadays, it is the first resort of the hypocrite.” They are indeed hypocrites of the first order.

The unfortunate reality is that Pakistan cannot afford a complete rupture of relations with the US on this issue or taking a position that could lead to an open confrontation with the latter. It is fraught with disastrous consequences with the possible prospect of our isolation in the fraternity of nations and a consequent loss of European markets for our products, which now enjoy preferential treatment. Prudence demands that we exercise utmost caution in dealing with the US and do not allow our relationship become hostage to the sentimental streaks of certain segments of our society. The US is trying to wriggle out of the conflicts in Middle East and Afghanistan and contemplating a future that is more focused on the Indo-Pacific region; however, it will maintain its presence in these lands through its non-combatants for a long time to come, despite ending fighting probably by the end of 2014. Pakistan must try its level best to facilitate the process of US withdrawal from Afghanistan by the scheduled timeframe and do nothing that reverses the process. The shift in the US policy to turn its focus on the Indo-Pacific region is dictated by surge in the Chinese influence on the world stage, India thrust as a regional superpower, opening up of Myanmar to the outside world and US’s own interests in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The Indian Ocean washes our shores and is connected with the South China Sea and Western Pacific. Half of the world cargo passes through these waters. A big chunk of South China is a disputed territory with huge mineral deposits at the seabed, which America is salivating to exploit. That makes the projection of its military power in the region a foregone conclusion.

China has steadily increased its interests in Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Myanmar and the Philippines, which are already allied to the US, though nominally. It has also shown a strong propensity to project its interests commercially rather than ideologically across the South Asian States and much of central Africa. It has built or is building ports in Bangladesh, Kenya, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. These have not been done for only trade purposes; they also have a military application. Chinese Navy participated in the anti-piracy operation in the Somalian sea in 2011. It is investing heavily in submarines and its first aircraft carrier will be operational within a decade.

Successful states like US are wealth-engines whose outward thrust to advance their commercial and entrepreneurial interests propels expansion. New markets for new product become a perennial goal for them with the accompanying need to protect those growing markets through military power. The US has the largest navy in the world and the carrier fleet is the principal tool by which it projects its military power. The US’s focus on Indo-Pacific region will be both as a market and a zone of military power to protect the assets thus created.

Although we view ourselves as an indispensable part of the US world picture, yet the reality is that we are not more than a detail in a far larger and long-term game. We are too preoccupied with our own relationship with the US in the context of Afghan conundrum and seem oblivious to what the former is doing in the world and its likely impact on us. It is in our interest to understand that game a little better than we do now. Remaining oblivious to the emerging realities can be very costly as it is likely to relegate us to the sidelines. The US and Pakistan are never going to love each other, but Pakistan needs its presence on the chessboard where the US plays its games.

The writer is a retired diplomat, a freelance columnist and a member of the visiting faculty of the Riphah Institute of Media Sciences, Riphah International University, Islamabad. He can be reached at ashpak10@gmail.com