Daily Times

On February 11, some 25 containers from Afghanistan entered Pakistan through the Chaman border while 25 others crossed the border at Torkham the next day. Pakistani officials on the first day said it was a routine movement of vehicles but US officials later confirmed that it was indeed the start of the withdrawal process of international forces from landlocked Afghanistan on a test basis. The process of withdrawal of US and NATO forces is scheduled for the end of 2014.

The US had withdrawn some 33,000 soldiers from Afghanistan last year, leaving about 66,000 troops. It is estimated that the US alone would move almost 50,000 vehicles and 100,000 containers during the whole process, excluding other NATO member states’ vehicles and containers.

Geeral Joseph F Dunford, the new US Commander of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, replacing General John Allen, has been assigned the task of completing the pullout process. Dunford faces the big challenge of leaving strong and well trained Afghan forces.

It was surprising for the world, particularly Afghans, when a few days back, a US government official said they could withdraw all forces from Afghanistan by 2014. According to some reports, US wants to leave behind 10,000 or less soldiers in the war-torn country. Afghan President Hamid Karzai was on his official visit at that time to the US for ‘crucial talks’ on security transition and post-2014 relations. Some of the observers called the statement a tactic to pressurise Karzai to soften the terms of security agreements, especially the US forces’ immunity issue.

In fact the Obama administration is on a fast track to get US soldiers back home. “There’s no reason why Americans should die when Afghans are perfectly capable of defending their own country,” said President Barack Obama before his re-election during his debate with the Republican challenger Mitt Romney. There is no rule, no law to justify the US leaving Iraq after ‘finding Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)’ and ‘liberating the Iraqi people’; it was just in the US’s interest. Now if Obama says Afghans are capable of safeguarding their homeland and US forces can leave, again, no one can deny it.

The American public is asking about the wastage of its tax money in an endless and useless war while the death toll of the US military has already passed 2,000 last year. Those are very basic reasons why the US government wants to withdraw as soon as possible.

Afghans, especially working in government and the private sector, have already started worrying about their future. Somehow, they are of the opinion that the Taliban would regain power. They have their own reasons for that thinking too. Requesting anonymity, an employee of the USAID-funded project in the ministry of law in Kabul said most of the NGOs and other private organisations had already downsized to 50 percent of their employees and it happened just as the US had reduced funding. “Frankly speaking, we have not planned to stand on our own feet on an organisational basis, because all of us are fond of donations and aid without putting us in trouble of work for the last one decade,” he said, adding he feared that he would lose his job today, while he could not think of the post-2014 situation.

On February 12, the US president during his first State of the Union address of his second term announced a pullout of 34,000 American soldiers, more than half of the present US strength, from Afghanistan this year.

The security situation in Afghanistan is unsatisfactory, and the 11-year long war has not changed much. For international soldiers it is just a military duty while for Afghan forces the same is a source of income. “I know, we are the losers from both aspects; if I kill a Talib or he kills me because we are both Afghans,” a policeman from Nangarhar province, who is serving at a police post in the Afghan capital said to me while requesting anonymity. He added that he knew he was serving his country in good faith but it also confused him sometimes. “Then I think, it is better for me than spending life as a refugee in Pakistan or Iran,” he said.

How can a soldier win a war with confusion in his mind? Afghan forces call the Taliban their brothers; no wonder, as their president called militants ‘my brothers’ on several occasions. Yes, one party has not shown confusion so far: the Taliban. Terror attacks carried out in various parts of the country, especially in Kabul, show that the Taliban can strike anywhere they want.

In September last year, the resisting elements attacked British-run Camp Bastion in the southwest Helmand province. It was said that the US lost its worst airpower in the attack after the Vietnam War.

Nothing much has been said about a very serious issue in the US forces and that is the number of suicide cases. In June 2012, the Pentagon had confirmed to BBC that the suicide rate had increased up to almost one case per day. It was said that from the beginning of the year till June 3, 2012, the total number of suicides among active-duty forces was 154, which was 130 during the same period last year. A spokeswoman of the Pentagon called it one of the urgent problems, and there was deep concern about it. Some of the reports have also said that suicides cases had surpassed combat deaths in 2012.

More than 50 coalition soldiers were killed last year in insider attacks, where Afghan soldiers turn their guns on their foreign partners. No matter what the official version of those ‘green on blue’ attacks from the Afghan and US sides is, the fact is it has a deep impact on morale. It has also created mutual mistrust and damaged the training process of the Afghan forces.

Although no official admits that the Taliban have infiltrated Afghan forces but these frequent incidents have no other justification. If Afghan forces with a very limited number can raise their arms against their allies and commanding forces while international forces are present there, the number can increase after complete withdrawal to act against the interests of foreign forces. No one knows what strategy has been made for that and what is possible in this regard.

Although the total number of Afghan forces has reached almost 350,000, they are not fully trained or equipped. The ISAF has planned to train Afghan security personnel by 2014 for a complete security handover to Afghans, despite the worsening situation in the country.

Insider killings have also affected the training process. The target of the desired number of Afghan forces has been achieved but the training they get in this situation will not be of the planned level. The outgoing General Allen has admitted that Afghan forces “still need much work to become an effective and self-sufficient fighting machine.”

Besides the training, provision of equipment, air power and financial support to maintain Afghan forces after 2014 are matters of great concern for the Afghan government and it has asked for international support in this regard on several occasions.

Meanwhile, Pakistan has given the Afghan High Peace Council (HPC) a formal role in the process of freeing the Afghan Taliban captured by Pakistan as a goodwill gesture and facilitating the peace talks between the Taliban and Afghan government/US. Pakistan has released 26 Taliban leaders so far, following a request from the Afghan president and the HPC.

According to media reports, the Afghan Taliban leaders, government officials and Maulana Fazlur Rehman, a Pakistani religious leader, were all in Doha, Qatar, for peace talks recently. Peace talks with the Taliban have been started since some time but it has seen no breakthrough so far.

The bigger question is when almost 120,000 international soldiers with latest arms and air support could not bring peace and stability in Afghanistan in 11 years, how the Afghans alone can achieve the goal? The US and several countries have pledged support for Afghanistan after 2014, but that would be financial support only and during this one decade-long war, they know they could not win there with money. The US and allies have already withdrawn from Iraq and that country has not seen a single day of peace after their invasion and the pullout. Incidents of bomb blasts and killings are happening on a daily basis in Iraq in the shape of sectarian violence. Afghans and the world are concerned how Afghanistan will be different from Iraq.

Afghanistan needs a sincere effort at a political settlement, with participation of all Afghan factions and neighbour countries on board, for durable peace in that country and the region.

The writer can be reached at Arifshafi6@gmail.com