Daily Times

General elections are due on May 11, 2013. Many in the country fear that the elections will be postponed indefinitely because of the deteriorating law and order situation, as the TTP are brazenly able to carry out acts of terrorism at will, especially against the secular parties. My own assessment is that despite the upheavals there is a greater than 50 percent chance of the elections being held on schedule.

According to a majority of political analysts, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) would emerge as the largest party in the upcoming elections, but without a simple majority. The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Awami National League (ANP) will suffer major setbacks while the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) will continue to sweep Karachi and win some seats from other urban centres of the province. In my opinion, the political pundits are underestimating Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) surge and in the polls his party can spring a major surprise.

The interim set up in the centre and the provinces appears to be fairly clueless about good governance. As is being reported in the press, besides some of their ministers indulging in petty personal gains, so far they have had little impact on improvement of the law and order situation and creating conditions conducive to the holding of free and fair elections. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) is making a valiant effort in this regard and their success would depend to a large extent if the decision is taken to deploy the army on the Election Day and given the full mandate to prevent rigging at any cost.

The higher judiciary, unfortunately, appears to be playing a partisan role while dealing with the political parties. The apparent one-sided manner in which they are handling corruption and criminal cases involving politicians is a cause for serious concern. The lower tiers of the judiciary in the public perception continue to be mired in monumental inefficiency and corruption.

Pervez Musharraf’s decision to return to Pakistan was unwise and a major folly; his relevance in the current elections is minimal while his presence has shifted the focus of the media from the electioneering to covering his trials. My guess is that behind the scene pressures from the defence forces will prevent his incarceration in jail, and eventually, under some pretext he would be allowed to go abroad and continue his self-exiled status.

The election scenario in Karachi is rapidly turning into a farce. Besides the daily targeting of the three parties with relatively liberal views on religious practices — PPP, MQM and ANP — there are disturbing reports of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) goons pasting and distributing pamphlets threatening entire communities of dire consequences if they turn up for voting. If the voter turnout drops substantially below the levels of the last two elections, the validity of the election results in the city would become highly questionable. In such a dubious environment, if the MQM’s stranglehold over the Karachi seats is broken, even genuinely, the party is likely to go to town rejecting the result and initiate measures that could virtually paralyse the metropolis. With Karachi aflame, the entire election process and with it the survival of democracy would become questionable.

A postponement of the elections would amount to surrendering to the TTP and other anti-democratic forces in the country, but an election held where a large number of voters fail to turn up because of terror threats would be even more counterproductive and dangerous. The interim setups at the federal and provincial levels along with the ECP have to initiate even more stringent measures to prevent the mayhem being created by the groups trying to disrupt the process through terror acts in the name of religion. All law enforcement agencies including the army should be mobilised for the purpose. With less than a week left for the elections, greater urgency to go after the terrorist outfits freely operating in the city has become an absolute must and on D-day, (May 11), the maximum number of security forces must be deployed in the city to boost public confidence in the security ambiance and encourage them to come out and vote without fear or favour. If the authorities fail to do so, democracy in the country may again come under severe threat.

The writer is a defence analyst and Director of Centre of Airpower Studies and can be reached at jamal4701@yahoo.co.uk