Daily Times

This weekend, many tens of millions of some 200 million Pakistanis will elect new national and four provincial governments. The elections are a remarkable milestone due in large measure to President Asif Zardari’s political navigational skills in the most roiled of waters. This is the first time in Pakistan’s history that an elected civilian government has completed a full five-year term and will be replaced democratically.

At this stage, the only likely outcome is the continued Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) control of the Senate and its 104 seats as only a third of the Senators are up for re-election. Most polls rank Nawaz Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party as the favourite, possibly winning 90-100 out of 342 seats in parliament, far short of a majority. President Asif Zardari’s PPP, chaired by his son Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, and cricket hero Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) will most likely vie for second or third place. A host of smaller parties will win a handfuls of seats.

Voter turnout in the last election in 2008 was about 55 percent. Whether larger numbers of women and youthful voters will swell the ranks is unclear. Conventional wisdom suggests that a surge helps Khan’s PTI. However, conventional wisdom in Pakistan is often an oxymoron.

Meanwhile, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other terrorist groups are disrupting the elections, killing off candidates largely from the PPP and Awami National Party (ANP) lists. A few analysts suggest that given the devolution of power to the four provinces, provincial elections may prove more important than the national vote. However, the geostrategic challenges of the region and Afghanistan in particular are so great that while this theory might relate to domestic economic issues, the next government in Islamabad will be crucial in shaping South Asia’s security for good or for ill.

Presidential elections occur later in the year. The four provincial assemblies and the two houses of parliament, not popular votes, will decide whether or not President Zardari stays or goes. And recently returned former president General Pervez Musharraf is a non-issue, currently under house arrest.

Those wanting the PPP to go contend that the PML-N will win the largest plurality and form a coalition government intent on fixing the myriad economic and social issues threatening Pakistan’s well-being. The presumption is that Sharif has learned from his two earlier failed premierships and succeeding what is viewed as a largely unsuccessful PPP government, ultimately, will win public support. But many do not see Sharif as either reformed or a reformer. Much as the PPP was forced by coalition politics to bring minority parties into a huge and largely dysfunctional cabinet, so too will the PML-N face similar realities. Many also distrust Sharif’s anti-Americanism and pro-Saudi position that could too easily succumb to religious fundamentalist influence, much as did General Ziaul Haq’s rule of nearly 30 years ago veer Pakistan in that unfortunate direction. Regardless, the army almost certainly will stay out of politics. Selecting the next Chief of Army Staff to replace General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, already twice extended, will go smoothly. Several highly qualified candidates are in play including for the post of Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, a position less important in Pakistan than in other countries.

One key question is how the election will affect the Zardari-Sharif relationship. The presidency is now a weak and largely ceremonial office. Zardari maintains power through control of the party. If the PPP loses the National Assembly, obviously President Zardari will likewise lose authority. However, Sharif may need the PPP to form a coalition government. Under those circumstances, who knows what sort of deal may transpire. After all, Zardari went out of his way in 2008 to bring Sharif and PML-N into government.

But it is the perils and paradoxes of Pakistani politics that hold greater sway. The PTI could make a surprisingly stronger showing. While the religious parties have attracted very minor electoral representation, that might change. And the strength of various PPP candidates could indeed produce a long-shot victory.

The US has taken an understandably hands off approach. Privately, it views the current government as weak and lacking in competence, preferring to deal with the army. And some in the State Department believe Sharif would make a better partner. They are wrong. If the US was not happy with the PPP, a PML-N coalition will not prove better.

A hung parliament is also possible. Under the constitution, the president can set a deadline for establishing a government. But would that work? As the US Congress seems incapable of governing if the sequester and budget are illustrative, why would Pakistan fare better?

Governance is thus crucial. Given the immense challenges and dangers facing Pakistan from worsening insurgencies to growing economic woes, no matter who is elected, will that team be able to govern with any degree of success? Pakistan is about to find out.

The writer is Chairman of the Killowen Group that advises leaders of government and business, and Senior Advisor at Washington DC’s Atlantic Council