Daily Times

If Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) survives today’s election as a viable political entity, it will make an important contribution to the development of democracy in Pakistan. Historically, political parties in Pakistan are either ‘confessional’ or ‘charismatic’. Confessional political parties are driven by religious ideology and most of them rarely saw electoral success except when many of them joined hands as the Muttaheda Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) during the 2002 elections.

Other than the Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F), no other religious party has any consistent electoral presence. Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) occasionally wins a few seats but was never an important political presence in any parliament. Continued survival of the JUI-F might be due to its ‘charismatic’ roots. It was an important party under Mufti Mehmood and continues to be important because it is now led by Mufti’s son, Fazlur Rehman. The original JUI was a religious party that also had a populist background and supported the Indian Congress before the partition.

The original Pakistan Muslim League (PML) collapsed after the death of Mohammad Ali Jinnah and Liaquat Ali Khan, and saw its end as the ‘ruling party’ when it was almost completely subsumed by the Republican Party in 1955. Since then the PML has been reincarnated many times by military dictators under different appellations. Its most successful reincarnation though is the present Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) that according to many is poised to win this election. But more about that later.

At this time all ‘major’ political parties in Pakistan depend upon charismatic leadership or a history thereof to survive and do well. The Awami National Party (ANP) has the imprimatur of the ‘Sarhadi Gandhi’ (Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan) and his progeny still controls it. However, as the memory of Ghaffar Khan recedes, the ANP will survive on the basis of its present day politics and its past performance when in government. This election will determine its future. If it survives with much of its vote bank intact, it will continue to exist as a political entity. The JUI-F will cross the same barrier during this election.

The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) is a creation of Altaf Hussain and as long as he is at the helm it will thrive but here also, without Altaf Bhai’s charismatic leadership the future of the MQM is questionable. However, the basic premise of the MQM as a political entity will exist for the foreseeable future. It is for this reason that the MQM will very likely survive as a political entity as long as it functions as a responsible and active representative of its present vote bank.

About the existing Muslim Leagues, the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q), creation of another military dictator is also slowly dying off and this election might be its last participation as an independent political entity. As far as the Pakistan Muslim League-Functional (PML-F) is concerned, it is the creation of the late Pir of Pagara and its present incarnation depends entirely upon his son, the present Pir. Without Nawaz Sharif, the eponymous PML-N would most likely disappear though there is a long line of the Mian family that is being groomed to take on its leadership once Mian Sahib is no longer at the helm.

Most political observers suggest that if Sharif was more ‘accommodating’ and more willing to bring in diverse leaders, he could very well have brought all the PML sub-entities together and created a true ‘universal’ PML that could withstand any challenge from the right or the left. Whatever happens today, it is very likely that the Muslim League in some form will continue to be an important part of the Pakistani political landscape.

And now to that political phenomenon called the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). Obviously, without the personal charisma of Imran Khan this party or rather ‘movement’ would never exist. The recent injury to Khan brought this reality to the forefront. Fortunately, Khan is recovering from his injuries and in a few weeks will be well enough to ‘go on the hustings’ once again. Whether Khan can convert the movement he leads into a real political entity that will outlast him remains to be seen.

This election has brought an interesting change into the political environment of Pakistan. Only a few months ago, the PML-N leaders insisted that they could nominate a khamba (electric pole) as a candidate from any seat in Lahore and have it win, yet in the last few weeks we saw the entire Mian family scrambling door to door ‘begging’ for votes.

Also we are seeing an emerging importance of politicians with local support. Perhaps the words of Tip O’Neill, former speaker of the US House of Representatives that all ‘politics is local’ has come true for Pakistani politics. If so, in future political parties will have to depend on local ‘electable’ candidates much more than in the past. And local candidates will have to contest not just on the basis of party allegiance but more importantly on past performance. Of course, the free and, to some, the ‘unbridled’ media is forcing this change.

The question, however, is that as we move away from control by a central ‘party leadership’, will we see the end of whatever little ideological underpinning we had? Also, as local candidates become more important, the need for ‘hereditary’ party leaders who were either the founders or the descendants of the founders of a particular party will decrease in importance.

So now back to the PPP and its electoral fortunes. This is the first time in the history of Pakistan that the PPP has entered the electoral fray without a charismatic leader at its head. If the PPP survives relatively intact it will prove that charismatic leaders are no longer the most important requirement for the survival of a political party. Perhaps ideology as well as a history of past constituent services is also important at least as far as winning an election is concerned. And that clearly will suggest that electoral politics in Pakistan has moved one step closer to maturity.

The writer has practised and taught medicine in the US. He can be reached at smhmbbs70@yahoo.com