Daily Times

Russia attacked Ukraine at an unfortunate time when Pakistan was grappling with a domestic economic slump. On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded and occupied parts of Ukraine. Contrary to its foreign policy principle of anti-aggression, Pakistan decided to stay neutral. Pakistan intended to seek the supply of cheap oil from Russia.

To elaborate, the war caught Pakistan unattended–in the sense that Pakistan’s anti-aggression principle was founded on the harsh realities of a dwindling domestic economy. Pakistan failed to oppose Russia, the aggressor: Pakistan failed to stand by Ukraine, the victim. In fact, by staying neutral, and by abstaining from casting a vote against the invasion, Pakistan supported Russia’s belligerence. This was a major compromise of Pakistan on its foreign policy principle.

Pakistan is oblivious to the fact that it is marching on the information highway. Add the factor of high-tech exacerbated by human inquisitiveness peeking over the fence, and the upshot is leaks, this time, the Discord Leaks.

On April 29, relying on the Discord Leaks, the Washington Post published an expose laying bare the fact that when it was time to choose between two strategic partners, Pakistan opted for China and not the United States (US). Here, Pakistan dropped the traditionally held middle ground and often hyped neutrality.

Pakistan failed to oppose Russia, the aggressor: Pakistan failed to stand by Ukraine, the victim.

The justification given for the change in position was that Pakistan declared its strategic partnership with China as original, friendly and lasting. As per the Leaks, in March this year, Pakistan’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar conveyed this point – Pakistan’s changing position and associated justification – unequivocally to Pakistan’s Prime Minister Mian Shehbaz Sharif, who acted accordingly.

The question is this: Did China ask Pakistan to support Russia? The probable answer is in negative. China itself had been a trade partner of Ukraine. Moreover, whereas China refused to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine and opposed economic sanctions against Russia, China offered its services to mediate between Russia and Ukraine. That is, when China itself is trying to play neutral between Russia and Ukraine, Pakistan decided to lose its neutrality in favour of China, disfavoring the US. There should be a convincing reason for losing the middle ground between China and the US. Having failed to strike a balance between the two is a big foreign policy failure of Pakistan.

As per the Leaks, Khar also advised that, on the war issue, Pakistan should avoid appeasing the West – the face of which is Europe. The question is this: Did China ask Pakistan to side with Russia against Europe (or the West)? The probable answer is in negative. Around 28 per cent of Pakistan’s total exports are to the countries comprising the European Union (EU), which has already granted Pakistan the Generalized Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP plus) unilaterally to offer Pakistan a special incentive to earn from export to pursue the goals of sustainable development and good governance. Interestingly, when China itself is striving for reaching out to Eastern Europe, through the land route, to become the largest trade partner of the EU by displacing the US, Pakistan decides to lose the West (or the EU). This kind of strategy is another foreign policy failure of Pakistan.

A question accosts every reader’s mind: Who suggested Khar make such revolting fundamental shifts in Pakistan’s foreign policy? It is known that Pakistan has been passing through a phase of economic crunch pregnant with components affecting foreign policy, but then what otherwise is the rationale for the existence of the foreign office if its officers are unable to foresee what is on the way? The war between Russia and Ukraine did not start abruptly. Clouds of war had been hovering over Ukraine since 2014. Similarly, Pakistan’s economy did not spell disaster suddenly. Signs of economic nose-dive had surfaced by the end of 2018. In each case, events were moving gradually in the direction of crisis. If the foreign office failed to read the series and sequel of events, the foreign office botched up the assigned task. Apparently, Pakistan has unnecessarily subordinated its foreign policy to Russia’s appeasement, even when it has not asked Pakistan to do so.

It is known that Pakistan harbours grievances against the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is also known that Pakistan has fallen into economic trouble because of two main reasons: first, Pakistan failed to align its expenditures with its earnings; and second, Pakistan violated the IMF agreement (the bailout package) signed in 2019. It is also known that Pakistan beseeched the US several times to speak to the IMF to ease conditions of disbursement. It is also known that China has helped Pakistan financially to run the economy. The question is this: does all this mean that Pakistan introduces fundamental changes in its foreign policy?

It was generally perceived that Pakistan was compromising on its foreign policy principle of opposing aggression by abstaining from voting against the war just because Pakistan wanted to import cheap oil from Russia, as Pakistan had been left with no other choice owing to high inflation. This stance was understandable. Many thought that it was temporary. However, no one knew that Pakistan had made fundamental, permanent shifts in its foreign policy, which is now more a reactive one than a principled one. The question is this: Can a reactive foreign policy, with permanently changed fundamentals, serve Pakistan in the future?

Both shifts – a tilt towards China at the cost of the US, and a tilt towards Russia at the cost of the West (or the EU) – are difficult to understand. The question is this: Is there a visible Russia-China bloc which Pakistan has joined?It seems that Pakistan is failing in understanding China and Russia. Both of them are driven by the communist-cum-capitalist thought. Both want to amass wealth lest they should be left behind by the West. Neither of them is interested in forging any anti-West bloc. Neither of them can take Pakistan along as a dependant if Pakistan does not strive for improving the economy independent of their financial help.

The writer can be reached at qaisarrashid @yahoo.com.