Daily Times

There have been four official coup d’état in Pakistan’s history but no third term for a civilian head of the government. Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif is all set to cross that threshold. From his exile on December 10, 2000 to his eventual return on November 25, 2007 he has had plenty of time to reflect and mellow. The trigger-happy Mr Nawaz Sharif of the 1990s who fired two army chiefs within a year seems to be taking great pains to project patience. A well-earned confidence has replaced his pre-May 11 jitteriness. Personal residence at Raiwind — not the Muslim League Secretariat, Islamabad or even Lahore — chosen as the hub of all post-election activity by Mr Sharif should leave little doubt about where the command and control of his eponymous Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is.

We noted in this space before the elections that whether the same party — with the same strength — gets to rule both Punjab and the Centre would define the new civil-military balance. With the PML-N poised to prove its comfortable majority in the National and the Punjab assemblies, Mr Sharif has earned a visit from General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani to his Model Town, Lahore residence. There is no parallel of such a visit by an army chief to a prospective (Mr Sharif has not yet been formally asked to form government) prime minister in the post-1977 Pakistan. A briefing on the national security issues to the incoming head of the government is customary elsewhere but seems like a novelty in a country held under the military heel for the better part of its existence. In addition to speculating about General Kayani’s ‘courtesy call’ it should be welcomed too. While dubbed by some as the khaki way to allay the civilian anxiety about whether they will accept Mr Sharif given their mutual history, it smacks of certain fretfulness in the military behemoth also. In addition to springing that political hot potato, General Pervez Musharraf, from jail, the army obviously is interested in the Balochistan, Taliban, India and, above all, Afghanistan policies.

On the campaign trail Mr Sharif has made all the right noises regarding relations with India creating some euphoria on the Indian side as well. As the noted Indian talk show host Mr Karan Thapar discussed on these pages, Mr Sharif told him that “He will investigate allegations of ISI involvement in 26/11” and that he “offered India a joint investigation and the full sharing of what it reveals. He also promised a thorough inquiry into Kargil and agreed to share its full report with the Indian government.” One has no reason to impugn Mr Sharif’s sincerity or the Indian excitement but the talk of such inquiries may just be a scarecrow for the army and most likely will not happen at all or not lead to anywhere if conducted. Nonetheless, Mr Sharif’s charm offensive, complete with the message to India in Punjabi via Mr Thapar, appears genuine to the extent that he does want to open up trade and business. While Mr Sharif also pledged to put an end to the hate mongering a la Lashkar-e-Taiba he may find it more difficult to do than promise.

Mr Sharif’s elaborate India talk is in sharp contrast to his almost complete reticence on Afghanistan. An Afghan presidential palace press release had stated that while congratulating Mr Sharif on his electoral victory ‘President Hamid Karzai described Mr Nawaz Sharif’s messages in the electoral campaigns as good for the well-being of the two nations and improved relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan’. One is not sure what the Afghan president has been reading but Mr Sharif remained mum on Afghanistan almost by design throughout the elections campaign. His strategic silence on Afghanistan suggests that Mr Sharif is not rushing to cross any domestic or foreign policy red lines drawn by the army.

Overtures to India are most welcome but relations with India were not an election issue. On the other hand, the domestic terrorism by jihadists tied directly to the assorted Islamist insurgents operating in Afghanistan was a front burner issue that Mr Sharif left untouched at the hustings. And now in his Lahore speech earlier this week laying out roadmap for his future government Mr Sharif has called for talks with the (Pakistani) Taliban. Seven years and about 14 failed agreements on, the beat up mantra of talks has not changed. The Afghan government, wishfully thinking that Mr Sharif can bring the insurgents to negotiations table, by using his Saudi connection some say, is in for a disappointment. The Saudi channel may very well be used by the army to keep Mr Sharif in line with its post-2014 plans rather than him pulling any surprises. Additionally, the narrative will be controlled, to Mr Sharif’s detriment, through Imran Khan and Jamaat-e-Islami combination, effectively a second coming of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal. Mr Khan is to Mr Sharif today what the latter was to Benazir Bhutto in 1988. Also, the political events unfolding in Balochistan suggest that despite fanfare to the contrary it is a political ‘no go area for Mr Sharif. But more on that separately.

Mr Sharif’s power base Punjab has an interesting fascination with the large felines from the folk dance Bhangra — a corruption of Bhaggarr or the lion dance — to the honorific Sher-e-Punjab (the tiger of Punjab) for its politicians. Incidentally, there has been no such political tiger in Balochistan or Sindh. The late Qayyum Khan — the Muslim Leaguer who originally had a tiger for an election symbol — came close to Sher-e-Sarhad but was quickly rechristened by the people with another carnivore epithet and himself preferred to go with the Khan-e-Azam. The title mongering had perhaps started as a copycat gig to emulate the Bengal tiger AK Fazl-e-Haq. Despite the confusion over whether the PML-N’s election symbol was a lion or a tiger — partly due to just a prefix differentiating the two in Urdu — the voters have spoken clearly for it. The civil-military balance cannot be tipped however, with an electoral victory alone. A combination of the voters’ mandate, economy and governance, independent judiciary and a free media all contribute to the strength of a civilian ruler vis-à-vis the military. But Mr Nawaz Sharif will have to do much better than his boilerplate statements to show that he is not just a ballot paper tiger.

The writer can be reached at mazdaki@me.com and he tweets @mazdaki