Daily Times

On May 11, 2013, the Election
Day, an important change was noticed all over Pakistan. This ‘change’ was the fact that a large number of voters from all segments of society came out to vote. The voting percentage went to an all-time high of 55 percent. The new voters were young, old, literate, illiterate, urban, rural, male, female, and even the sick and invalids. This was something extraordinary and good for ‘democracy’. The voters believed that the power of their vote could bring change. The new voters were different from the conventional voters who had only expected a change of face, continuance of the status quo, and of the miseries as always. The new voter had hope of more and significant change unlike the conventional voter.

Elections are now over and the governments will be formed soon. It is time to think if the change was only a romantic idea or could there be something real as well in play here.

What are the changes that the voters would like to see in the governance of the newly-elected governments?

Regular people would want regular power supply to be available to all at reasonable rates. This is the change that almost everyone wants. The previous government had miserably failed to provide electricity and it became the major reason for its downfall. Although some Pakistan People’s Party stalwarts did a lot of development work in their constituencies and hoped to win because of that performance. It did not happen. Yousaf Raza Gilani, Raja Pervez Ashraf, and Firdaus Ashiq Awan are some of the examples. The voter showed more concern about the national plight caused by the power shortage than their local conveniences provided by the candidates. It is an evidence of a ‘national’ outlook instead of a ‘local’ one. This change in attitude is heartening. However, the expectation of any major change in power supply is definitely going to be short of expectations. No government, however well-meaning it may be, whatever its promises may be, can provide full power supply according to the needs of the nation in less than 30 months. If they try to do that then they will burden the nation with a huge debt on adverse conditions, from lending agencies like the IMF, which will create even bigger problems later on.

At present the new government’s best option seems to be a combination of several actions if it really wants lasting and adequate change in the power sector. For immediate relief, they should accept the Saudi offer of oil supply at deferred payment basis, provided the strings attached are tolerable. Let us be clear: all ‘help’ has a quid pro quo as the underlying factor. Would the Saudis expect some concessions on behalf of a world power? Would it want a change in our foreign policy towards Iran? There could be other factors but these two are the most tricky. If the Saudi help means that the delaying tactics be adopted in implementing China-Gawadar contracts or delay in the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline and supply, then the offer is too tricky and almost unacceptable. In our relations with other countries absolute priority must be given to our neighbouring counties. I also include India and Afghanistan in this list. It will depend on the negotiating skills of the Nawaz Sharif government as to how well it handles this issue. Presuming that this government succeeds in providing some other favours, and our regional priorities are not disturbed then it will be a laudable success. In this situation substantial power can be generated within six months by the full functioning of already installed capacity and supplemented by the existing potential of hydal power. The relief will make the nation happy. However, this arrangement must be supported by the speedy development of power-generation through the Iran-Pak gas pipeline, and improvements in the existing dams to increase generation. It should be done before the end of the three-year period when the payback to Saudi Arabia starts. Power generation by Iran gas and hydal resources will rationalise the per-unit cost and enable the country to pay for the Saudi oil.

To me this is the scenario. It will take the necessary time. In the meantime, fair and equitable distribution of electricity presently generated should bring some relief and the nation will have to live with it. One should not expect more change than that.

The next priority is change for better in the law and order situation. There is no doubt that the law and order situation in the country has deteriorated so much that a lot of people live in fear with a sense of insecurity. Some crime is present in every part of the world. But when life starts getting paralysed, more often than not, then the matter needs very serious attention and strong will of the law enforcing agencies. A change in the deteriorated law and order situation is something that must be on the priority list of the expected change in the minds of voters when they went to cast their votes. Is it something that they should expect now? Surely, it should be expected but what is a realistic expectation? If some voters thought that Imran Khan will change everything because he had somehow become a symbol of change, even then in reality to achieve it to perfection would not have been possible. The fact is that the basic assumption of the ‘tsunami’ sweeping him into power was unrealistic. Assuming that the 25 national assembly seats where rigging is suspected could have been won by Khan, he still would not have been in majority in the National Assembly. So his contribution now will be primarily in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Considering the latest drone attack on Thursday and Taliban’s withdrawal of the invitation for talks, little progress can be expected in the near future. However, the law and order question is not limited to the Taliban only. There are several other factors that need to be analysed.

(To be continued)

The writer is the former CEO Pakistan National Council of the Arts; Chairman Fruit processing Industries; Chairman UNESCO Theatre Institute Pakistan; COO ‘ICTV’ USA, and currently, Senior Vice President APML(Central). He can be reached at naeemtahir37@gmail.com