Daily Times

Call them the silent or the swing vote, they have given their verdict for the time being and have largely allowed Nawaz Sharif another chance at the centre. The surveys conducted before the elections also pointed out that the credibility of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) had been shaken but still stood ahead of others. The political choices made by the voters on May 11, 2013 must, of course, be respected by all political parties and their supporters but the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) must also address genuine complaints raised by some candidates. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) candidates also polled a large number of votes in each constituency but their numbers in most cases fell short. Nevertheless, it has managed to emerge as the main opposition party of Pakistan. Now, how are we to look at these developments and what does the future hold for Pakistan?

For starters, all eyes will be on the PML-N now. Mr Sharif cannot use President Asif Zardari as a convenient distraction now, and neither will constructing flyovers nor even bullet trains suffice. The provincial-national debate is over for the PML-N, at least. Its leadership will now have to deal with national issues like load-shedding, unemployment and terrorism. The challenges are enormous and so are the expectations. The dismal performance of the Pakistan People’s Party-(PPP) led government in the last five years has just about exhausted the patience of the people. This means that the usual honeymoon period will be shorter and the disappointments in case of failure will show themselves earlier than usual.

The first stop will be the energy issue. The PML-N made it a cornerstone of its campaign by coming up with the slogan ‘Roshan (bright) Pakistan’ and using that on all its publicity mediums. It must make a tangible difference on this count very soon, otherwise this issue alone holds the potential of disrupting the political and economic process in the country.

On the whole, it’s a tightrope that the PML-N will have to walk on. And that is where the danger lies. The national challenges like mending the economy or tackling the energy crisis requires deep structural reforms. The PML-N does not seem to carry the political will necessary to undertake those reforms. The party still relies largely upon the local patronage based strongmen-type of politics, combined with the personal appeal of its leader, Nawaz Sharif. Such political structures are not built or suited to bring about deep changes. And since the PML-N has not mobilised the masses along the theme of change or any specific issues, it will be reluctant to undertake any reform that might offend its support base. For example, Mr Sharif will find it difficult to enforce measures to raise the tax to GDP ratio as it will offend the traders’ community, his traditional ally. Same goes for agriculture; his powerful landholding allies in the rural areas will resist any move to tax or reform this sector that suffers from not only low tax collections but also incredibly low yields. Pakistan cannot move towards a high-growth trajectory without removing the bottlenecks from its largely agrarian economic base.

But by far the trickiest subject will be terrorism. So far, Mr Sharif has gotten away with keeping mum on the issue of drones and terrorist hideouts. With the US pushing one way and his right-wing and conservative vote bank holding diametrically opposite values, Mr Sharif will probably be unable to formulate a coherent and consistent foreign and interior policy. Add to this the intention of the US to withdraw from Afghanistan in the coming months, the need for a decisive leadership in Pakistan acquires greater significance.

Imran Khan, however, will have very different issues on his mind. The delay in his party’s elections and the sudden rush into general elections meant that his party could not find the time to organise itself and resolve its internal issues. And this took its toll during the recent general elections more than anything. After the announcement of party tickets, candidates had just 20 days available for campaign. Such time constraints meant that in many areas the candidates had to rely on the party’s machinery. For a newly emerging party like the PTI, that proved to be a handicap.

Now Mr Khan has time to address these weaknesses and organise his party from the grassroots. He has already laid the foundation for turning it into a democratic institution by holding truly genuine party elections but elected organisations need time to work in their localities. The PTI candidates with already allocated constituencies can also enhance their presence, appeal and interaction with the local voters at a more personal level.

The PTI will also be closely monitored for its performance and service delivery in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Mr Khan has more space for reform in that province because of the nature of his vote bank that is not dependant on traditional structures. So the PTI must act boldly and demonstrate its administrative and political ability by constructing a model of governance that impresses voters in other provinces too.

In the national assembly, the PTI’s presence as a responsible and proactive opposition party can not only add to the political discourse and debate in society but also lead towards better legislation and policies. That is much needed as the PML-N has had expensive policy failures in the Punjab government during its recent stint due to ill-thought out measures like the sasti roti (cheap bread) scheme.

On the whole, it seems that the PMl-N will deliver a relatively cleaner and efficient government in the centre but may lack the political will to address national issues. In that case, the sentiment shall rapidly turn against it. The PTI will seek to benefit not only from the failures of the PML-N government but will also take advantage of the time allowed to it to grow into a powerful political force and an organised election winning machine. The next 12 months will be interesting as the public will gauge, judge and may re-assess the political choices they made on the May 11, 2013.

The writer is a graduate in Development Economics from SOAS and a Barrister-at-Law from Lincoln’s Inn. He was also the PTI’s candidate and runner-up from NA-121 Lahore. He can be reached on twitter @Hammad_Azhar