Daily Times

Pakistan, the world’s only Muslim nuclear power, celebrated Youm-e-Takbir (Day of God’s Greatness) this year with the usual fervour and chest- thumping bravado. The day marks the country’s nuclear tests in 1998, which were a tit-for-tat response to earlier Indian tests. Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme is setup as a military deterrent against India. It is also regarded as the ultimate guarantor of the country’s survival.

The nuclear programme has come to play an important role in sustaining national self-esteem. Nuclear nationalism and anti-Americanism can easily rally Pakistanis around the flag. This tends to deflect attention from the ruling elite who have historically done little to solve pressing national problems. It also helps to paper over internal dissension in an increasingly fractious nation.

With few reasons to celebrate amid the frequent power outages, grim economic outlook and frequent terrorist incidents, various stage managed and scripted nuclear celebrations around the country on May 28 took on a jingoistic and patriotic air. A national daily reported on a ceremony organised by the Nazria Pakistan Trust: “A boisterous crowd applauded incoming Prime Minister Mian Nawaz Sharif, who had authorised the tests during his last tenure as prime minister. It was heartening to see the jubilation of people celebrating Youm-e-Takbir during the worst ever energy crisis in the country. Though most of them might have had an almost sleepless night due to unavailability of electricity, their enthusiasm to celebrate pride in country’s nuclear capability and expected of the rulers to use this weapon against India without hesitation whenever needed. Mr Sharif lamented in his speech that a nuclear Pakistan was without electricity. Though he vowed to end the energy crisis, but asked the people to wait for that moment with patience since there was no money in the national kitty. Mr Sharif, however, consoled the audience by telling them that after assuming reins of power, he had plans to undertake an economic explosion.” It appears that a sleep deprived and broke nation living on empty political promises can still be fired up to contemplate nuclear Armageddon!

Nuclear terrorism is seen as a critical threat to states and peoples around the world. In this context, the western press periodically labels Pakistan as being “an obvious place” for militants to seek nuclear weapons or materials because of a weak government and infiltration of its security forces by jihadist sympathisers. This fuels local conspiracy theories on external dangers to the nuclear programme reflected in this newspaper comment: “May 28 of every year, makes us realise that our nuclear programme is the most disliked and unwanted thing for our neighbours and the world around us, and from the so-called terrorist activities to the drone attacks, all atrocities are an effort to keep us away from further advancement in the field of nuclear research.”

Pakistan has greatly enhanced its capability to wage nuclear war since the initial tests. The country is well advanced in the full-scale manufacture and deployment of nuclear weapons, along with their delivery vehicles and command and control systems. Credible ‘first and second strike’ scenarios, new battlefield and strategic nuclear weapons and the potential for a triadic nuclear programme, with weapons in the air, sea and on land are bandied about in national security circles. Nuclear weapons serve as a force multiplier, able to make up for regional imbalances in conventional military power. For insecure states like Pakistan, nuclear status impart extraordinary prestige and power.

The catastrophic consequences of exercising the nuclear option are seldom discussed. Pakistanis seem to be leaving their nuclear fate in the hands of a ‘rational’ leadership who can be counted on not to take another Kargil-like gamble and underestimate the other side and have millions of innocents potentially pay the price. “There is nothing worth having that can be obtained by nuclear war — nothing material or ideological — no tradition that it can defend. It is utterly self-defeating.” (George Wald)

The national prestige associated with having a nuclear weapons capability can do little to ensure Pakistan’s survival and prevent a Bangladesh type breakup in the future. It did not work for the USSR, and it will not work for Pakistan either. Pakistan’s survival in large measure depend on economic performance, political stability, a wise foreign policy, technological advancement, and in developing its civilian human resource potential.

The writer can be reached at shgcci@gmail.com