Daily Times

If the indicators are read
correctly there is every chance that Pakistan will again be left stranded after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. This would not be new as it has happened before after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan. The US is wary of the losses its troops face and the economic cost of its presence in Afghanistan. Resultantly for a safe exit for its troops, the US is not hesitant about negotiating with the Taliban. Not sharing any border with Afghanistan, the US has nothing to lose in these negotiations. Both the US and the Taliban have a lot to offer each other. The most likely scenario is that in return for a safe passage for the US troops, the US would not proactively act against Taliban interests after the withdrawal of the majority of its troops. This would by default mean that in the not too distant future the Pashtun majority areas of Afghanistan bordering Pakistan would come under the legitimised control of the Taliban. This would happen in spite of the fact that the Taliban were imposed upon the Afghan people and had never received the mandate of the majority of even the Pashtuns, as they have never entered an electoral process. Did the people of Afghanistan sacrifice for this? The nexus that will then form between the Afghan Taliban and their ‘cousins’ operating in Pakistan under the TTP umbrella will pose the greatest threat to Pakistan’s security. Pakistan needs to do all it can to prevent such a scenario to develop.

For the sake of its public image the US would seek and may get a pledge from the Taliban that they would sever all its ties with the al Qaeda, its natural ideological ally. This would land well with the voters back home and not hurt the short term interests of the US. In the name of peace there would naturally be release of some militants now in US custody at Bagram. Their crimes against humanity would be very conveniently forgotten. Would this help Pakistan? With the deterring force weakened in Afghanistan, the ideology that considers all who believe differently as infidels, heretics and apostates and thus deserving death would continue to flourish in Afghanistan. Their legitimacy in Afghanistan will make their ilk in the TTP in Pakistan act with impunity. Together with LeJ, their like-minded ally from Punjab, the TTP would make the best use of the space available in the areas under the Afghan Taliban to unleash terror on the vulnerable communities here: the women, Shiites, Ahmadis and Christians. The people that bomb shrines of saints in Pakistan and bombed the Bamiyan Statues in Afghanistan will have less to fear.

Pakistan has paid the heaviest price in the war against terror with over 49,000 military and civilian deaths. This is many times more than the combined losses of all allies in this war. Were all these deaths in vain? Were these for the supremacy of extremism? The supremacy of extremism in Afghanistan has a direct impact on inter-faith harmony within Pakistan. The US has secure borders and can check cross-border movement effectively. It does not lose anything and may care a hoot if all of Afghanistan goes into Taliban control as long as it can secure a commitment from the Taliban of not hurting its interests and allowing a safe withdrawal of its troops. It was not an inadvertent error that the name plate of the office of the political wing of the Taliban that Qatar facilitated in opening read ‘The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’. It is not a secret that the office opened on the US’s desire to be able to negotiate with the Taliban outside Afghanistan. Since President Hamid Karzai still matters in the pre-withdrawal period and the Afghan government rightfully objected, the sign at the door was taken down.

However, this holds ominous signs for all who believe in cultural diversity, freedom of conscience and democracy. Pakistan has a porous border and the terrain at a number of places assists infiltration. It cannot effectively eliminate infiltration by extremist elements from Afghanistan and the covert and overt support they will provide to the extremists here is likely to be catastrophic for the long term stability of Pakistan. The Taliban ideology is annihilative for the dissenter and eats up the fabric of a society. Where the people are brave as in Pakistan, and show resilience, it can ultimately cause an implosion if allowed to operate freely.

The US has shown a repeated weakness reflected in its lack of long term commitment when it mattered. It has done so previously in both Afghanistan and Cambodia. It let Afghanistan slip into the hands of warlords after the capitulation of the Communists that the US had brought about through its proxies, the so-called Mujahedeen .It did so in Cambodia as well where it halfheartedly intervened in the 1970s and the people were left to face the agony of the Khmer Republic. The formation of the Khmer Republic resulted in the one of the worst genocide of history where 1.4 million and 2.2 million people were killed, with perhaps half of those deaths being due to executions. This would surely not have happened had the US shown a real commitment.

Lack of resolve by the US due to mounting economic costs and the weariness back home would destabilise the whole region. The agenda of the extremists that form the both the ideological and militant core of the Taliban goes beyond Afghanistan and includes China, Central Asia and the Russian Caucuses. The recent massacre of Russian, Ukrainian and Chinese mountaineers at the Nanga Parbat base camp is not a coincidence. Afghanistan is a job only half done at best and the US would only be letting a problem appear more forcefully later on with even greater consequences. Not just for the US but the world as a whole. The people of the US should be made aware of this so that political expedience does not make its government take a wrong decision.

Contrary to the thinking of those who look but at the short term effect of relative peace, Pakistan and other regional countries face a worse future in case of Taliban ascendency in Afghanistan. Pakistan needs to make it clear to the US that it would facilitate the US troops and equipment withdrawal from Afghanistan only if the US looks after its legitimate interests there. The US must act to exert influence on the Afghan government to respect the agreement between Afghanistan and British India and accept the Durand Line. Pakistan should also seek a fool proof mechanism to check cross-border infiltration. This is the real test for the new government here.

The writer can be reached at thelogicalguy@yahoo.com