The IMF has been giving Pakistan a whole lot of grief as of late, expressly forbidding it to reach a settlement until the implications of Prime Minister Sharif’s recent petrol subsidy become clear. Even after repeated requests for leniency, the IMF remains committed to its original designs for cash-strapped Pakistan, now at a heightened risk of sliding into an economic recession.
After slashing our growth outlook from 6% to a mere 0.5% just a week ago, the IMF also forecasted 27% inflation and rising unemployment this year for a country whose people have been fighting for their lives for months amid the government slashing subsidies and raising taxes to comply with the IMF’s bailout terms. Forget schooling and transport, most people in our country can barely afford to get food on the table.
These measures are a long-time coming. The repeated failures of successive governments have catalyzed the situation that we find ourselves in today. That’s just what happens when you make a habit out of borrowing more than you can give back.
There’s no denying that we have made tremendous progress with the IMF’s terms but a long, difficult journey lies ahead; the road to macroeconomic stability calls for more than a few emergency measures. Recently, Pakistan secured $1bn in financing from the UAE which hopes to help the country avoid default. Saudi Arabia also pledged a $2bn loan earlier today. We should be grateful that anyone wants to help us at all considering our colossal credit deficit and penchant for abandoning our commitments.
Structural changes need to be made, changes that can endure the test of time. But getting the IMF loan is equally crucial and potentially life-saving for the millions who have been thrust into the pitfalls of the highest-ever annual inflation in the country’s history. Businesses can’t operate the way they used to, people have had to strip down to the barest of essentials to ensure their survival and many haven’t survived at all. We need the IMF by our side if we want a genuine shot at convincing all the other institutions that have shunned us to trust us again. *
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