Daily Times

Pakistan is back at a crossroads; vacillation and hesitation are not an answer but a decision remains imperative. The thaw between Saudi Arabia and Iran has been seen as an ominous development in the Western world. To the chagrin of many, the rapprochement between the two arch-rivals has been brokered by China and some Muslim countries. Political analysts have seen this move as a blow to the hegemony of the United States of America.

The post-Second World War competition ended with the fall of Russia. A new world emerged touting America as the only heavyweight in the comity of the world. The last three decades of a unipolar world saved the small economies from the dilemma of joining power camps. China, which remained docile for decades, has now started challenging the status quo. The One Belt, One Road initiative was the first push to rock the boat. The recent political developments in the Arab world took the Western powers and NATO forces by storm.

Pakistan has been a close ally of America since its creation. Though our relationship with China is equal to the age of Pakistan, it has never been a soaring point for the rest of the world. Under the present situation, the competing political and economic interests of America and China in the region have created a difficult situation for Pakistan. America wants Pakistan on its side as a mercenary option for security purposes. India remains a major economic and political ally of America in the region to dilute the influence of China. Today, Pakistan is confronted with more serious challenges, which are more than economic and strategic. The country has to feed its population, which is over two hundred thirty million. It has to channel the energies of the huge bulge of the young population who is religiously motivated and aligned with different religious sects. Similarly, Pakistan faces a serious threat of food insecurity due to host of factors. Traditionally, Pakistan has remained a security state with sound military resources. Times have changed and so have the requirements. Pakistan needs to reimagine its foreign policy options in the backdrop of changing global agenda. America is sceptical about its loyalty to Pakistan. China has seen shifts in the policy positions of Pakistan over the CPEC issues. China needs an unwavering Pakistan with sound political leadership having appreciation of the economic realities and the capacity to make decisions.

The new realities fostered by international forces has placed Pakistan in a critical situation. Pakistan has to take a definitive position without keeping multiple grey areas. Two options are placed on the table: to play second fiddle to India as an American proxy in the region or join China camp along with oil-rich Saudi Arabia and Iran.

While making preferences, the impact of right wing forces either in the shape of the Shia sect or a huge Sunni population needs to be calibrated. China, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Syria are likely to join hands with each other to forge a new economic order. For Muslims, KSA is a point of reverence and sensitivity. The predominantly Sunni population of the country has a strong religious bent that can go to any extent in case Pakistan opts for the American camp and the US with its allies tries to hamstring Saudi Arabia’s progress. Likewise, the huge Shia population looks at Iran and Iraq as sacrosanct places which open up doors of

Pakistan and the changing world order

heavens for them. Any ranting or offence against Iran, Iraq or Syria in Pakistan may trigger this volatile segment of society.

Pakistan has seen sectarian violence in society. Managers of Pakistan would not like to see the resurrection of sectarian violence in the country. The opposing sectarian sections may join hands against the state in support of Saudi Arabia and Iran. This threat is to be avoided with prudence.

Economically, Pakistan should explore avenues for inter-regional trade to reverse the de-industrialization process and overcome looming food insecurity. The country relies on POL products, which drive the local industry and cater to domestic needs. A huge Pakistani diaspora also works in the Gulf region and foreign remittances sent from Gulf states have become the lifeline for our economic survival. Trade with China, Saudi Arabia and Iran can effectively help us serve our national needs.

Pakistan is in the high sea and looking for rising tides to lift its boats. It should not be forgotten that the Chinese yuan is the most traded currency in Russia. Malaysia has floated the idea of setting up the Asian Monetary Fund to minimize reliance on the IMF. Though the idea is still too raw to use as cooked food, it has the potential to become a future trade reality. Change is inevitable and policymakers in Pakistan need to set national agenda with a creative sense of proportion. It is time for Pakistan to take a clear position instead of balancing between the two poles of power. The decision remains with the policymakers on which road they choose to take.

The writer graduated from University of Warwick UK and works as a trade development and tax advisor. He may be reached at nadeem27ctp@hotmail.com.