Daily Times

Three weeks ago Mohamed Morsi was swept aside by the military. He was kept in protective custody, and now he has been charged with spying on behalf of the Palestinian militant group Hamas that led to the death of 10 Egyptian army personnel in June. Morsi would now likely be transferred to one of the high security prisons in Cairo. Adly Mansour, former head of the Constitutional Court, has been installed as the new president. A new cabinet has been formed. The Muslim Brotherhood (MB), the party of Morsi, was invited to join the cabinet but the party leadership turned it down. The offer of dialogue was also dismissed by the MB as it believes Morsi is still the elected president and he should be reinstated.
Since the military-staged drama, Egypt has witnessed massive demonstrations all over the country. The government’s heavy-handed response has not eased the situation. Warrants of arrest have been issued against the MB leadership and activists and large numbers of demonstrators have been rounded up. Protestors taking shelter inside mosques were allegedly shot dead, some during prayers. The print and electronic media sympathetic to MB were shut down and many journalists were put behind bars. As the violence escalated, the minister of defence asked the opponents of MB to lend support to the army. On Friday, July 26, massive demonstrations have taken place in Cairo, Alexandria, Suez and other cities both for and against MB. The nation is clearly polarised.
The transfer of power has given rise to a debate whether this has been a coup or a revolution. MB claimed the elected president was removed by a military coup. Friendly countries, including the US, did not endorse the army action but refused to characterise it as a coup either. US law places restrictions on continued military assistance to a country where an elected civilian government is overthrown by a coup. The Obama administration did put on hold the release of F-16 jets to Egypt temporarily, but it has not yet decided to suspend military assistance. Since the Camp David agreement, Egypt has been in receipt of $ 1.7 billion annual military assistance. Over the years this has cemented the relationship between the defence forces of Egypt with that of the US, and by extension with the Israeli army. The Pentagon would not like to place this cordial relationship in jeopardy by suspending the military assistance to Egypt. In response to a query, the newly installed President Mansour asked journalists to look at the massive demonstrations held in Tahrir Square endorsing the removal of the former regime. Mansour termed it as a revolution.
MB is rightly aggrieved that its nominee elected a year ago has been removed unceremoniously. The secular groups that worked hand in hand with MB to oust the regime of Hosni Mubarak imbued Morsi’s consolidation of power with danger. They suspected Morsi would turn MB into a Frankenstein’s monster. His lack of tolerance to media critical of the administration and brutal police action to confront the demonstrators compounded the suspicion that MB believed in totalitarianism. The secular groups moved to Tahrir Square and demanded Morsi step down. The army that dislikes the MB as well as the secular groups moved in to make space for itself in the governance of the country. Now the three contenders for power, i.e. MB, the conglomeration of secular parties and the military would be in a fierce gambit to neutralise, if not devour, each other. The military stands a better chance due to its muscle power.
In this crisis, though an Egyptian solution is desirable it would not be forthcoming. Hence there is a need of assistance from the international community. The Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) have proved themselves irrelevant as neither has been able to mediate in any crisis involving member states. The UN remains the only hope. But its uncharismatic Secretary General limited his role to making statements from time to time. He should have mobilised the Security Council and sent a delegation to Cairo to reach out to the parties involved. This has not happened and is unlikely to happen due to incompetent leadership at the UN. This would imply that the Egyptians will have to rise to the occasion and strive for a solution keeping in mind the situation on the ground.
Morsi secured 51.7 percent votes in the presidential election. This was hardly a mandate to consolidate power in his hands and make his office beyond judicial scrutiny. His actions including transforming MB into a government within a government cracked open a division in the alliance and his popularity plummeted. The massive gatherings at Tahrir Square proved that in the month of May his approval rating fell far below an acceptable level. Now that he has been deposed and a significant proportion of the population demanded his removal, the process cannot be reversed to reinstate him as the head of state. Morsi and the MB leadership should accept the reality.
The secular parties that fought for democracy were disenchanted for being marginalised. MB went ahead in implementing its manifesto, which threatened the establishment of a pluralistic society. In the absence of an agreed action plan, MB thought it was within its jurisdiction to draft a road map that would allow its leadership to perpetuate its rule. The secular parties felt they were betrayed. At the end both the MB and the secular parties lost. Their disunity created an ideal situation for the military to reclaim the power it lost two years ago. The hope that the military would restore democracy might prove elusive.
The military has seized power as the demands in the streets could no longer be ignored. It might have a point but it was not given authority to amend the constitution prepared under the guidance of an elected government. Now the demands in the streets are also getting louder asking the army to transfer power to elected representatives. Government is applying excessive force in confronting the opposition voices. Hundreds have been wounded and the death toll is on the rise. Economic activities including tourism have halted and sufferings of the people have compounded.
In the present chaotic situation the leaderships of MB, the secular parties and the military should evolve a road map for the restoration of civilian rule. There is no alternative to dialogue. The prime ministers/presidents of friendly countries like Turkey, Pakistan and Algeria should set up a contact group with senior diplomats in order to reach out to the concerned parties in Cairo. The primary responsibility of the contact group would be to facilitate dialogue amongst the representatives of the government/military, secular parties and the MB. Dialogue is essential to break the impasse. Three weeks of violence has caused unprecedented destruction of life and property. There are ominous signs in next door Tunisia. A prominent opposition leader has been gunned down a few days ago. A destabilised Egypt would mark the beginning of destabilisation of the region. The people of Egypt deserve peace, tranquillity and a better life. Egypt cannot be allowed to slide into deeper anarchy. Friendly countries have a responsibility to come forward with a message of peace, dialogue and reconciliation. They should launch the reconciliation mission without delay. Time is now of the essence.

The writer is a former official of the United Nations