Daily Times

In the statements of US
Secretary of State John Kerry, carrots were prominent and the stick was absent during his recent visit to Pakistan. Further, Kerry articulated implicitly the reasons why Pakistan’s expectations from the US were not being met. Generally speaking, Kerry’s visit was a success for US diplomacy.

Kerry informed his Pakistani audience that the US had eliminated the major threat. The implied message is that Osama bin Laden has been eliminated. Kerry informed Pakistanis that Aiman-ul Zawahri was orchestrating terrorist attacks against the state of Pakistan and that ‘very soon’ drone strikes would end. The implied message is that when Zawahri is eliminated too, the frequency of drone strikes will be reduced further to a minimum and that time is not too far. The collective meaning of both the implied messages is that unless Zawahri is captured or killed, drone strikes will continue and that Pakistanis should compel their government to take action against Zawahri who must be in the lawless region of the Pak-Afghan border, including North Waziristan, and prodding terrorists into launching terrorist attacks against innocent Pakistanis. Further, the implied messages also excluded the role of a dialogue being contemplated by the Pakistani government with the Taliban to halt the spate of terrorist attacks in mainland Pakistan.

In fact the message is clear: if Pakistanis wants to see the end of terrorist activities (which they consider a reaction to drone strikes) devouring their lives and the end of drone strikes desecrating Pakistan’s sovereignty, they should force their government into launching a military action in the lawless northwestern region to eliminate the remnants of al Qaeda, including Zawahri and its supporters such as the Taliban. If Pakistanis cannot do that, they have to wait (and bear a few more terrorist attacks by the terrorists) as the US is after Zawahri and soon he will be either apprehended or killed. Kerry made one point clear that the year 2014 would not see full withdrawal of the US forces but only a drawdown meaning thereby that the US was relentless in its efforts to eliminate the threat posed by al Qaeda and its supporters from Afghanistan or any neighbouring region. Apparently, Kerry said that the real timeline to end drone strikes rested with US President Barack Obama but he inferred that the timeline could be passed on to Obama by Pakistanis or the government of Pakistan. Hence the real decision power about the end of drone strikes is in the hands of Pakistanis.

The offer of ‘full partnership’ is an exciting move. Kerry did not tell Pakistanis about the future of the Af-Pak strategy announced by Obama in March 2009. In the context of ‘full partnership’, the exact meaning of which is still to be known, Pakistan may see a possibility of its de-hyphenation from Afghanistan and re-hyphenation with India in the eyes of the US. However, the chances are bleak, given the bright chances of a long-term engagement of the US with the newly elected government in Afghanistan in the beginning of 2014. Kerry also pressed the need for restarting the strategic dialogue with Pakistan that has been stalled since October 2010. Taking both these messages together, it seems that the US must have realized that be it the US-Afghanistan or India-Afghanistan strategic partnership, there must be a US-Pakistan strategic partnership to minimize the burden of Afghanistan on US shoulders. This also means that the US foresees Afghanistan’s future in its quadrilateral engagement in which the US, Pakistan, India and Afghanistan are active (and may be equal) partners. The rhomboid structure of partnership may obviate the failure of Doha-like talks between the Kabul government and the Taliban in future.

The prospects for this type of partnership are quite good, especially when the incumbent government of Pakistan has two main items on its foreign policy priority list: (a) forging friendly (diplomatic and economic) ties with India, and (b) having a stable and peaceful Afghanistan. The other two items are: (a) allowing China to develop an economic corridor through Pakistan, and (b) building economic ties with Iran. The major, and perhaps the only, policy objection raised by Kerry was on the prospects of Pak-Iran economic ties, which were being realised through the Pak-Iran gas pipeline to meet Pakistan’s energy needs. This objection may shed some light on the meaning of ‘full partnership’ offered to Pakistan by the US. This point is corroborated by the claim made by Kerry (when he visited a power plant) that the US helped Pakistan add about 1,000 MW of electricity to its grid recently. In the context of full partnership, the US has nodded towards devising alternate ways to help Pakistan meet its energy challenge.

At a joint press conference, the statement of Sartaj Aziz, the Prime Minister’s Advisor on National Security and Foreign Affairs, revealed that the restoration and strengthening of the economy had become the cornerstone of Pakistan’s foreign policy. In fact, Aziz made the first demand in the context of Pak-US full partnership to allow Pakistan enhance its exports to the US to the tune of $ 11 billion per annum in the coming five years. The reason why Pakistan should not expect a ‘Marshall Plan’ for its recovery and rehabilitation from the ongoing war on terror is that the US (and perhaps the world too) thinks that Pakistan is responsible for its own plight. Pakistan has failed to convince those sections of its society that are pro-Taliban of the advantages of Pakistan’s disengagement from those elements. Pakistan’s own policy choices are the reason for the prolongation of the war on terror, which is now ravaging Pakistan. Nevertheless, Pakistan should try to be self-reliant.

In summary, the drone strikes will not end unless Zawahri is liquidated. Second, the US is ready to forge economic and strategic ties with the representative government of Pakistan. Third, the US intends to involve the Pakistani government in post-2014 Afghanistan through a strategic pact.

The writer is a freelance columnist and can be reached at qaisarrashid@yahoo.com