Daily Times

General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani is leaving office this November after serving as Pakistan’s Chief of Army staff (COAS) for six years. The country is wondering who will be the next army chief and what role he will play under the country’s civilian leadership. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is again at a familiar juncture when he has to choose Pakistan’s new army chief and has to select the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC), as General Khalid Shameem Wynne, the current CJCSC is retiring in October.

The Pakistan army, under the leadership of General Kayani, did understand the invisible line between the military and the civilian government. There were instances during former President Asif Zardari’s tenure when public opinion hinted at a military takeover because the democratic government was not doing much to safeguard the rights of the people and was a mute witness to Pakistan’s crumbling economy. However, General Kayani, known as a rational leader, made efforts to endorse democracy and lessen the military’s grip over the country’s democratic process, allowing the civilian government to handle its affairs on its own.

It is a fact that a change in leadership brings with it an alteration in the group’s thinking process. It is expected that after General Kayani, the military’s psyche regarding Pakistani’s civilian government might change, as the new army chief’s modus operandi may not be parallel to that of General Kayani. Moreover, analysts believe that even though the Pakistani nation and government will remember General Kayani’s tenure as a period of soft military leadership, it is obvious that one such era does not become a benchmark for the future. Pakistan’s government must rule the country in such a manner that the incoming army chief is not compelled to adopt a rigid leadership style and is allowed to administer in his own limits without any civilian interference. However, what leadership style General Kayani’s successor will have is yet to be seen.

The job description of Pakistan’s army chief entails a list of challenging demands and only a man of fortitude and resolve can do justice to it. General Kayani’s successor would need to be vigilant on both ends of Pakistan’s borders. At the Pakistan-India border, the recent Line of Control (LoC) episode would compel General Kayani’s successor to create strategies to counter any such incident in the future and to maintain healthy relations with the Pakistan army chief’s Indian counterpart. Moreover, Pakistan’s new army chief would need to focus on Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, as the US will transport its millions of dollars worth of military equipment from Karachi; therefore, General Kayani’s successor would need to remain vigilant over the security policies that Islamabad implements for this process.

Furthermore, President Barack Obama has said that the US will have some strategic presence in Afghanistan; therefore, Pakistan will need to stand guard at the Durand Line to prevent any reaction of the Afghan civil war, expected to occur in post-2014, from spilling over into Pakistan. The army chief of Pakistan would need to play an instrumental role in safeguarding Pakistan’s borders and might want to make his own security policies. It will, thus, be wise if Islamabad hands over the defence ministry to a prudent minister. This will allow Prime Minister Sharif to look after other issues of paramount significance. Appointing the COAS and the CJCSC will highlight Prime Minister Sharif’s third term, defining the future of Pakistan’s military-civilian relationship. This time around, Prime Minister Sharif would need to think strategically over all the names of the candidates for the vacated post that the outgoing army chief would present to him.

Prime Minister Sharif wants to liberate Pakistan’s politics from the military as he wishes to maintain a division between the two, which explains why he is holding the portfolio of defence minister even after four months in office.

Mr Sharif would need to make a rational decision while choosing the COAS and the CJCSC for two reasons. First, he witnessed the misuse of military might against his government twice; first in 1993, during his first tenure as the prime minister, when General Abdul Waheed Kakar overthrew the government; and then on October 12, 1999, at the hands of General Pervez Musharraf. Secondly, Pakistan and the South Asian region in general are facing a delicate time as Afghanistan and India will be a cause of concern for the Pakistani government and also for the incoming army chief. These are definitely testing times for Prime Minister Sharif and the incoming COAS and CJCSC, for all three would need to work in cohesion to bring Pakistan out of its foreign policy and security predicaments. How unified will be their tenure in office is yet to be seen.

The writer is a freelance columnist for various English dailies and writes on international relations with focus on South Asia. He tweets @omariftikhar