Daily Times

Exit from Afghanistan by the invading empires and superpower has been a rather difficult affair and at times the invaders ended up paying a heavy price. The Anglo-Afghan wars of the 19th century, the Soviet occupation starting 1979 and the manner of retreat of the Soviet army during 1988-89 are being focused and studied again. Many an academic circles are seen drawing parallels between the Soviet and the US retreat. Comparisons might not be the correct thing, but history does teach us lessons and whispers on the mistakes of the past, only to be heard and heeded by the wise. By now entry into Afghanistan by the US-led coalition army has entered its 12th year, even after this prolonged war no end seems to be in view and has only made the US and allies look like countries driven by self interest while entering Afghanistan in 2001.

The public opinion is that withdrawal from Afghanistan must be completed at an early date; the long war has failed to bring any fruitful results. All the factors necessitate a rapid exit of the US and allies from Afghanistan.

Withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan was the subject of a summit organised by NATO in Chicago in May 2012. The summit endorsed an exit strategy from Afghanistan prepared by the US. President Hamid Karzai was also a participant in this Summit. By June 2013 an exit plan was prepared by the US and NATO administration; the main feature of the plan was that 60,000 personnel belonging to the US and allies, comprising of trainers, technicians, consultants and special operation troops, will stay in Afghanistan beyond 2014. In recent developments, President Hamid Karzai has shown dissent on the US and NATO plans for residual troops staying in Afghanistan beyond 2014, the time when the US and NATO withdraw their main combat troops. Consequently, the US has begun preparing a zero option plan, withdrawing all troops and consultants from Afghanistan. Hence, there is no firm or formal US exit strategy from Afghanistan, creating an air of uncertainty in the region. For us living in Pakistan, various options are being weighed and people asking questions about the shape of things to come.

The first batch of troops of the US and allies have been leaving Afghanistan since 2011. The US-led coalition combat troops have handed over almost all combat operations to the Afghan forces; this process of withdrawal was completed by mid-2013.

No further exit strategy or firm commitment of troops, consultants, financial or military aid by the US beyond 2014 seems to have been announced. The situation has become more alarming due to the suspension of the Qatar initiative. Law and order in Pakistan is affected by happenings in Afghanistan and we have reason, more than anyone else, to examine the future possibilities, as historically, Pakistan has been affected by the situation in Afghanistan. For the US and allies time is of the essence if it wants to leave Afghanistan in an orderly manner, which would necessitate, among other things obtaining the budgetary approvals for financing any commitments beyond 2014, and preparing the public opinion for a vast spending beyond 2014. Budgetary approvals are a lengthy process involving a public debate, which might not go in favour of large military aid beyond 2014. In this predicament many academicians have started drawing parallels between the withdrawal of the USSR in 1989 and the present day withdrawal of the US and NATO.

It took Gorbachev more than three years of persistent effort to arrange a retreat for the USSR and reach an accord at Geneva in 1988. Pakistan was considered a significant country in these agreements. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan created irresolute problems for the USSR and Afghanistan. Initially, armed intervention into Afghanistan was opposed by many a member of the Politburo including Gromyko, the then Soviet foreign minister. Later, events made the USSR enter into Afghanistan; these events were the failing Afghan government, the growing influence and militant stance of the conservative sections, including the Mujahedeen, all resisting social and economic reforms initiated by the Peoples’ Democratic Party of Afghanistan. There was resistance to the land redistribution reforms too, seen by many as interference in the social and economic life of tribal and rural Afghanistan.

In December 1979, Brezhnev ordered Soviet troops to enter Afghanistan in support of a bordering client state facing a civil war. Afghanistan was being ruled by the Peoples’ Democratic Party of Afghanistan, the Afghan equivalent of the Communist Party. A review of events upon the Soviets entering Afghanistan on December 24, 1979, create an impression of violence and confusion. Hafizullah Amin, the Afghan president, was killed on December 27, 1979, the third day of the Soviet occupation. Blame for his murder was placed on the Soviet troops. Babrak Karmal became the new president of Afghanistan, who was to occupy that position until 1986, a position held by him for most part of the Soviet occupation.

Even in the initial stage the Soviets had a heavy military presence, as about 100,000 troops were deployed in the first month of occupying Afghanistan. In spite of a large military presence throughout the decade-long war, the Soviets were never in any commanding position. Precarious occupation mainly remained confined to a few urban centres and a few routes remained open for movement and supplies for the Soviet army. The Mujahedeen physically controlled almost 80 percent of the country. To gain control of the rural areas, the Soviet army started bombing to depopulate the countryside, leading to a heavy loss of life.

(To be continued)

The writer is a freelance columnist