Daily Times

A recently released UN report warns of the adverse effects of the opium trade in Afghanistan. It projects that the drug trade will increase while the ‘legal’ economy will shrink in 2014 in view of the reduction in aid. Poppy cultivation in 2013 is 36 percent higher than in the previous year. According to the report, there is a strong link between insecurity and increased poppy cultivation. Yuri Fedotov, the UN executive director, has warned, “As we approach 2014 and the withdrawal of international forces from the country, the results of the Afghanistan Opium Survey 2013 should be taken for what they are: a warning and an urgent call for action.” If the problem is not taken seriously, the ‘virus’ of opium could further reduce Afghanistan’s stability with the profits from this illicit economy further destabilising the country.

The Afghan economy is weak and is surviving on international aid. Once the presence of the allied forces is reduced, the economy will face a setback due to the loss of many thousands of civilian jobs. A recent World Bank report estimated that the rate of growth of the Afghan economy will drop to 3.5 percent in 2014, down from 14 percent in 2012 — a reduction of 10.5 percent in the growth rate. In another report in the Financial Times, annual aid of $ 15 billion, a figure roughly equivalent to its GDP, is likely to be reduced significantly in 2014 due to the failure of the Afghan government to check corruption. Norway has already reduced aid, citing the failure of the Afghan government to adequately respond to violence against women and corruption within the government. Throughout the war years, the road network has remained neglected as most of rural Afghanistan is in the hands of the insurgents.

A deteriorating economy and an unresolved insurgency are major issues with no apparent solution in sight. Peace within Afghanistan and this region, including Pakistan, will depend upon an improvement in the Afghan economy and its security situation. Alternatively, the insurgency will continue to grow due to poverty, unemployment and a security apparatus starved of resources. The US and NATO forces will leave Afghanistan without having created conditions where the Afghan government can provide adequate security or a stable economy. With the exit of the Soviet forces in 1989, Afghanistan descended into civil war. There is a fair possibility that the same future awaits the impoverished nation.

The US has handed over almost all operational responsibilities to the 200,000 strong Afghan National Army. These forces lack motivation and discipline while being beset by corruption and ethnic divisions. To compound the issue further, the desertion rate stands at 10 percent annually and many militants have entered its ranks, leading to a string of insider attacks. The Afghan National Army does not have the training and experience to be qualified as a disciplined professional army, and certainly does not have the capacity to fight a widespread insurgency.

The Afghan people are facing a difficult situation; there is a faltering and far off cry for peace. The government has problems arising out of a long period of wars spreading over 35 years. The writ of the government is limited only to cities and a few strategic routes. As summed up by Ahmed Rashid, writing in 2006, “The situation in Afghanistan is not just dire, it is desperate. The struggle against Islamic extremism will be lost not in Iraq, Iran or even the Palestine territories, but in Afghanistan. It is here that al Qaeda wants to regroup and rearm itself to continue its global jihad and it is here that NATO countries are failing the world.” The Afghan national security forces do not have the capacity to counter a well-organised insurgency. Indications are that peace will remain as elusive as ever. The US and its allies want to return home and would like to concentrate upon building their own economies, becoming more inward looking and finding ways to forget the Afghan war, which has resulted in hundreds of thousands of casualties, dead and wounded, and millions more becoming refugees. Tragedy will again be faced by the Afghans who, in spite of such colossal human losses, will continue to suffer for many more years to come.

(Concluded)

The writer can be reached at humayunshafi@gmail.com