Daily Times

The unexpected elevation of a ruthless commander, Mullah Fazlullah, to the position of head of the outlawed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has already set alarm bells ringing in the civil and military circles of Pakistan. The contours of the emerging scenario are rapidly becoming evident with Mullah Fazlullah having ruled out the possibility of any peace dialogue with the federal government. Lots of speculations are in the air and a bloody wave of revenge attacks against the government and security forces is also being feared. The TTP has announced that it will continue its fight against Pakistan until the establishment of a sharia-based dispensation across the country.

Mullah Fazlullah has never left any ambiguity about his hardline views against the armed forces. Notorious for his barbaric rule in Swat for more than two years, Mullah Fazlullah was mainly responsible for the collapse of the peace agreement in Swat in 2008. A few days after the signing of the peace deal, the militant group led by Fazlullah cut the throats of two army officers in Swat and backed out of its promise to lay down arms. Later, Mullah Fazlullah continued his activities from Afghanistan and emerged as the most deadly threat to our security forces. Of late, he has claimed responsibility for the killing of Major General Sanaullah Niazi and has also vowed to target General Kayani, the chief of army staff (COAS).

Since the formation of the TTP in 2007, its leadership and operational control have largely remained in the hands of the Mehsud tribe. The Mehsud tribe constitutes a majority in the Sarwekai and Laddha sub-divisions of South Waziristan. Generally known for their obduracy, the Mehsuds have always resisted the presence and influence of the Pakistan army in Waziristan. On the other hand, the Wazir and Dawar tribes, two major tribes of North Waziristan, have kept a more cooperative posture towards the government. After 2008, it was mainly due to the open support of Maulvi Nazir-led Wazir groups that the security forces succeeded in eliminating more than 250 Uzbeks, Tajiks and other foreign militants, and forcing many others to flee from North Waziristan. Another pro-Pakistan Taliban leader, Hafiz Gul Bahadur, also belongs to the Madda Khel clan of the Uthmanzai Waziris. However, the Mehsud tribe has maintained contacts with foreign militants and has also provided shelter to certain foreign terrorists suspected of having links with al Qaeda.

It is argued that despite the Mehsud tribes’ refusal to accept the authority of outsiders, the Pakistan army has often been able to influence their decisions because of a close rapport with other tribes from the North and South Waziristan Agencies. Some people have also attributed the recent success of the federal government in convincing Hakeemullah Mehsud to come to the negotiating table to be this factor. However, now, the selection of Mullah Fazlullah and his deputy Sheikh Khalid Haqqani by a 17-member TTP ‘supreme council’ has shifted the mantle of leadership from the Mehsud tribe to the militants based in Swat and other settled areas. Almost all main figures of the Mehsud tribe have been killed in drone attacks over the past few years and, due to this vacuum, their influence in the TTP has weakened. Fazlullah will now try to gain complete operational control of the organisation in his hands to further consolidate his authority as he has sidelined the pro-peace group led by Khan Syed Sajna. This also means that it will become difficult for the Pakistan army to use its influence in Waziristan against the TTP. The TTP is no longer a FATA-based organisation and the militants intend to extend their activities to the settled areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The selection of new leadership from the settled areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is also likely to enable them to recruit more fighters from the urban areas.

According to military analysts, Mullah Fazlullah is a ‘wild card’ being used by Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security (NDS) to orchestrate cross-border attacks in Pakistan. There are also suspicions that Mullah Fazlullah has contacts with the CIA and NATO forces in Afghanistan. In order to further bolster this impression, it is argued that Pakistan has many a time requested the US to target Mullah Fazlullah and has also wanted US officials to share intelligence regarding the exact location of the fugitive commander in the Nuristan province of Afghanistan but Fazlullah remains at large to this day.

There is an optimistic view being propounded by some journalists that the TTP after Hakeemullah’s death is a weak organisation and that Fazlullah, unlike his predecessor, will not be able to enjoy the allegiance of all powerful groups and keep them under a central authority. Different Taliban factions have been fighting turf wars against each other in the tribal agencies and other settled areas as well. However, local people in FATA are of the view that these internal differences within the Taliban will make Mullah Fazlullah adopt a very aggressive approach and possibly open a full-fledged offensive against the government and the Pakistan army. In order to stop these internal battles, Fazlullah will make an attempt to rally all these groups to fight against a common enemy. Fazlullah is based in Afghanistan and has no tribal affiliations in FATA. This factor will enable him to continue his operations from Afghanistan without any significant worries about his personal security. Within Taliban circles, Mullah Fazlullah is also famous for advocating all forms of criminal activity to generate money. He will also use his influence to provide shelter to Chechen, Tajik and Uzbek militants in FATA because his goal is to involve as many players as he can to further complicate the situation and mount further challenges for Pakistan.

The attacks against the security agencies and the many suicide bombings will increase in the coming months. During the past four months, three members of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial Assembly have been killed in suicide attacks; there are reports of the Taliban planning to target some more high profile figures in Punjab. The hydra-headed monster of the TTP is now completely out of control and will assume a more lethal shape with the passage of time if urgent steps on a war footing are not taken to contain the group. One thing is sure: the ‘ideological’ battle being waged at present between the political stakeholders on the issue of dialogue with the Taliban, resulting in an incoherent response, is only helping the TTP prepare itself against a ‘divided’ enemy. This situation points towards a deadly scenario for Pakistan already pregnant with extreme internal security challenges in the days to come.

The writer is a research scholar and a former visiting fellow at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, California. He can be reached at rizwanasghar7@hotmail.com