Daily Times

The five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and Germany (five plus one) signed a deal with the government of Iran on November 23, 2013 in Geneva. Iran, as per the deal, would stop enriching uranium above five percent and dilute its stock of 20 percent enriched uranium or convert it to oxide, which makes it harder for further enrichment. Iran will not increase its stockpile of low-enrichment uranium and will freeze its enrichment capacity by not installing any more centrifuges, leaving more than half of its existing 16,000 centrifuges inoperable. Iran agreed not to fuel or commission the heavy-water reactor under construction in Arak or to build a reprocessing plant that could produce plutonium from the spent fuel. Iran has also accepted a dramatic increase of inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to some facilities. In return, certain aspects of sanctions would be eased. Iran will receive modest relief of trade sanctions and access to some of its frozen currency accounts overseas valued at $ 7 billion over the next six months.

President Obama has characterised the deal as historic and expressed optimism that the interim deal would lead to a long-term agreement. The leaders of European countries have also hailed the agreement. Iranian President Hasan Rouhani has expressed satisfaction on the deal and said it has vindicated his government’s position that Iran has the right to pursue nuclear capability. President Rouhani, however, reiterated that Iran would not acquire a nuclear arsenal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned the deal as a historic mistake and feared that the world would bear greater risk.

Iran has been under international sanctions for the past 20 years and 30 years of US sanctions. Iran was allegedly pursuing nuclear weapons and abetting terrorism across its border, especially in the troubled region of Israel-Palestine-Lebanon. Iran defined its nuclear ambition as being limited to power generation and scientific research. It kept no secret of its resolve to support the legitimate anti-occupation movement by the people of Palestine against Israel. Since Iranian belligerence was directed against Israel, the darling of the west, European countries and the US formed a combined pedestal to deny Iran a nuclear arsenal.

Iran bravely defied 30 years of economic sanctions. The sanctions conversely helped the rulers project the western countries as enemies of the people of Iran. Though the moderates in society favoured reconciliation with the west, the sanctions and the highly biased policy of the US towards Israel strengthened the hawkish. Khatemi, former Iranian President, made inexorable efforts to mend fences with secular countries but the hardliners at home and pro-Israeli forces in Europe and the US frustrated these attempts. Mahmoud Ahmeadinejad came to power with no specific agenda. His irresponsible utterances about the holocaust and existence of Israel made him a controversial person in international circles. The last days of Ahmadinejad saw a crippling impact on the economy, including depletion of the value of Iran’s currency, and rising inflation and unemployment. Ahmadinejad, during his presidency, never missed a session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York but failed to reach out to the international community. Iran became more and more isolated.

In this backdrop, Hassan Rouhani, former chief negotiator of the nuclear programme, became the president of Iran six months ago. Rouhani pledged reform at home and signaled a shift in external relations including on the nuclear programme. Rouhani’s signal was well received in western capitals. In his address at the UNGA, President Rouhani reiterated Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capability was for peaceful purposes and invited the US and European countries for dialogue. He was optimistic that, within 12 months, a solution to the nuclear issue would be possible. President Obama reciprocated and talked to his Iranian counterpart over the phone while the latter was on his way to the airport. This happened to be the first direct contact between the presidents of the two adversaries in the past four decades.

The governments of the ‘Five Plus One’ countries agreed to direct negotiations with Iran. Diplomats from both sides met in Geneva in the second week of October this year. Negotiations lasted for more than a week but produced no tangible outcome. The French foreign minister was unhappy that Iranian delegates were not yielding enough and was about to stage a walk out. The meeting was adjourned for three weeks when the talks reached a stalemate.

Negotiations resumed on November 18 in Geneva. The foreign ministers of the Five Plus One countries joined their diplomats. Following marathon negotiations, the deal was finally struck. President Obama defended the deal in the context of his declared resolve that diplomacy must be given a chance to address conflict. He reiterated that negotiation is a preferred option to war. The Iraq and Afghanistan wars have taken the lives of over 6,500 soldiers and left another 65,000 seriously wounded. Billions of dollars have been spent to sustain these wars, bringing the US’s economy to severe recession. CNN’s conducted gallop polls reveal that 56 percent US citizens supported the Geneva deal against 40 percent who opposed it. Despite initial reservations, the government of Saudi Arabia, in a statement issued on Monday, has welcomed the deal. Kuwait and Bahrain have also hailed the interim agreement.

The Geneva deal is the prelude to a comprehensive agreement to be worked out in the coming months. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and his government, right from the very beginning, opposed reaching any agreement with Tehran. He termed the new Iranian government as a wolf in sheep’s clothing and cried foul over the intentions of the Iranian government. Iran had about 3,000 centrifuges in 2006 that produced enriched uranium at a concentration of just 3.5 percent. Notwithstanding sanctions, Iran now has around 16,000 centrifuges and is able to enrich uranium to the level of 20 percent. The Geneva accord would require half of Iran’s 20 percent uranium to be diluted and no more produced. Iran has stockpiles of plutonium but this cannot be rolled back to zero. Israel has a stockpile of 120 to 300 nuclear weapons. In order to instil confidence in the streets of Arab capitals and Tehran, would Prime Minister Netanyahu acquiesce to dismantle half of Israel’s nuclear arsenal?

A comprehensive nuclear agreement, if worked out, would open the door for further reconciliation between Washington and Tehran. By courting Iran, the emerging regional superpower, the US will be set to gain diplomatically and economically. China, in 1971, was an isolated state and nobody believed it could play a constructive role in world politics. The Nixon administration read the writing on the wall and paved the way for Beijing’s due place in the UN. China is now one of the leading world economies and important actors in international diplomacy. Following the neutralisation of Sunni dominance in Iraq, Iran’s social and political influence has extended to the shores of the Mediterranean. Iran might not be a responsible actor on the world stage as long as it is led by the mullahs but regimes do evolve in their own way. This possibility has driven Netanyahu quite mad.

The author is a former official of the United Nations.