Daily Times

On November 24, 2013, the Loya Jirga (grand assembly) endorsed the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) between the US and Afghanistan, which allows US forces to operate in the country beyond 2014. Members of the Loya Jirga were faced with a very awkward situation when President Karzai refused to sign the agreement. The gathering was arranged by the president himself but was humiliated and left rather speechless when he said that he would not sign it until after the presidential elections in April 2014.

The Afghan media and political analysts have accused the president of resorting to delaying tactics on signing the BSA in an effort to gain the support of the US for his nominated candidate for the presidential election. Right at the very beginning, the president told the Jirga that he would honour its decision but, on the last day, he refused to sign. Moreover, President Karzai found himself trapped when some members of the Loya Jirga demanded his resignation. On the question of immunity for the US forces, some members openly criticised him and said he was more jingoist than patriotic. Mr Karzai was in trouble and came to the stage again and again to convince members of both parliament and the Loya Jirga but failed.

The agreement allows US forces to enter the houses of Afghan citizens during the day and night, and kill, injure and arrest their women, children and elders on suspicion of their links with the Taliban and al Qaeda terrorist groups. “From now on, the US troops searching houses, night raids, blocking roads and military operations are over and our people are free to go anywhere,” Karzai said. He said that if the US soldiers’ raids on homes continue, then this agreement would not be signed. In fact, he insisted on the end of US night raids on Afghan homes, which have regularly been carried out since 2001.

The commonly called ‘immunity’ for US forces is a matter of great concern for all Afghans living in and outside the country. Experts say immunity for US solders is directly related to the national sovereignty of the country. This means national sovereignty has been sold. The BSA remains in question as President Karzai deferred the decision on its most contentious provision: immunity for US forces from criminal prosecution in Afghan courts to a Loya Jirga.

After the endorsement of the Loya Jirga, US Ambassador James B Cunningham issued a statement that said, “I am grateful that the Loya Jirga, which represents the Afghan people, overwhelmingly offered support for the Bilateral Security Agreement and asked President Karzai to sign it by the end of the next month.” US National Security Advisor Susan Rice also told Mr Karzai that the US was ready to sign but Karzai acknowledged that there has been a trust deficit between his government and the US during the last five years. He also fears that the CIA and Pentagon might attempt to interfere in the coming elections. Mr Karzai accused the US of meddling in the 2009 elections, saying it tried to change the voting process. He also wants the US and western nations to support his nominated candidate for the presidential elections in 2014.

President Karzai’s new precondition has complicated the signing process. He has demanded the release of all Taliban prisoners in Guantanamo Bay and has insisted on the stance of a total ban on night raids. Susan Rice warned him that Obama would have no option but to withdraw all US forces from Afghanistan. The president also said that the key to peace in his country belonged to the US and Pakistan because, in his understanding, Pakistan supports the Afghan Taliban. He believes the US has imposed an unnecessary war on his country.

There was also a sharp reaction from Afghan forces when he denied the capability of the Afghan security forces in fighting insurgency and terrorism when he made the remark about the key to peace being with Pakistan and the US. He openly criticised the Afghan National Army (ANA) by saying that it does not have the capacity to fight against the Taliban. This means that peace will remain as elusive as ever. A source from the Afghan defence ministry told me that ANA views this agreement as a source of tension in the region as regional states have expressed serious concerns about the long term military presence of the US in Afghanistan. The US has already established a separate military intelligence agency (Defence Clandestine Intelligence) for containing China.

Afghan neighbours have shown reservations about the US military bases in the country and say these bases will endanger their security. The air bases that the US wants to establish in Bagram, Kabul, Kandahar, Herat, Mazar-e-Sharif, Helmand and Jalalabad, and land ports in Torkham, Spin Boldak, Tooghundi and the Sher Khan border in Kunduz province are considered a bigger threat to regional security. It is a general understanding that the US military base in Mazar-e-Sharif province will monitor Russia and China while its military base in Herat might monitor Iran and the Gulf states. The Jalalabad and Kandahar bases would monitor Pakistan and its military activities and the Bagram base would monitor China.

As the fate and destiny of the Afghan nation is unknown, notwithstanding the signing of the BSA, war will continue to ruin the country. Afghanistan has never experienced a single day of peace during the last three decades of civil war. The ANA should number 250,000 men to effectively defeat al Qaeda and Taliban forces after the withdrawal of NATO and US forces at the end of 2014 but military experts in the US have regretted that the number of ANA troops could never grow larger than 100,000 because 42 percent of soldiers are leaving their posts every year. Since 2001, the number of civilian and military casualties has made record increases every year. The nation is divided on ethnic and sectarian bases and, therefore, there are possibilities for a new ethnic and sectarian war in the near future.

The writer is the author of Punjabi Taliban and can be reached at zai.musakhan222@gmail.com