Daily Times

For many years my first article of the year in these pages was about my predictions for the New Year. But then, a number of serious studies were published in the US about predictions made by political pundits and that these predictions had a chance of being right about as often as the toss of a coin. I then decided to stop making predictions. But this year I relented, for after all a political pundit who makes no predictions is at best only half a pundit. So, here we go. First, the easy predictions. Mian Nawaz Sharif our Prime Minister (PM) will neither lose weight nor allow his sparse hair to go grey. Mian Shahbaz Sharif, better known as the ‘talented bro’, will allow his sparse hair to go grey and he will not put on any weight. However, both will make frequent trips to London to get ‘routine’ medical checkups while they also check up on their real estate holdings.

Among the second tier Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leaders, I predict that the hair of the Minint will stay exactly the same as it has been for the last many decades. Also that the Minint will stay perpetually angry not realising that he himself is now the real tamasha (spectacle). And I predict that the minister for load shedding and now also for defence (wow!) will continue to frown at all times as he disappears from public view leaving us only his frown to admire.

As far as our Minfin of the carefully maintained perpetual facial stubble is concerned, I predict that he will keep trying to talk down the price of dollars, tomatoes, potatoes, kumquats and onions without much success while carrying a begging bowl like any self-respecting wandering mendicant. And yes he will keep wandering into every meeting of any donor agency anywhere in the world doing an Oliver Twist impersonation and ask for more. About the Mininfo, I predict that he will continue to do the only thing he is evidently good for and that is to appear on as many TV talk shows as often as he can to provide information of dubious veracity.

As far as the second generation PML-N leaders are concerned, I predict that the heir apparent to the takht (throne) of Lahore will continue to do whatever he has been doing for the last five years with about the same impact. As far as the talented daughter is concerned, about her I will make a slightly braver prediction. If given the opportunity she can emerge as a real politician with a future.

I also predict that if the President of Pakistan and the Governor of Punjab switch jobs, nobody will notice, least of all the PM. I can also predict that the number of times the PM will attend sessions of the National Assembly will be fewer than the number of times he will visit London. As far as the load shedding crisis is concerned I can safely predict that any new increase in electricity production will be less than the amount of energy that can be produced if all the recently signed Memoranda of Understanding concerning this issue are collected and burnt in a pile.

Now about some of the other politicians around. First about the great Khan. I predict that his hair will remain as before and his politics will remain as schizophrenic as ever. As far as his looks are concerned, I am afraid that he will continue to resemble the recently deceased Peter O’Toole in the movie Caligula. Are there any other leaders in his party? Yes I know there are other members of his party who were once members of other parties and even held important ministerial positions but they are all entirely forgettable. The only exception in my opinion is one of his party’s leaders from Lahore, ‘Khan the minor’ I should call him, whose major claim to fame is that he has the best hair restoration job of any politician I know. Hint, hint, Minint!

Frankly I do not want to kick somebody when they are already down for the count but within the leadership of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) there are some that merit a comment or two. First of course is our former president of the perpetual smile. And I can predict that since his tormentor-in-chief, the former Chief Justice (CJ), is gone he has no reason to stop smiling. The more interesting (and the more powerful?) person in the PPP now is the third time Chief Minister (CM) of Sindh. As an octogenarian he is the only CM around with a better than even chance of dying while in office. If that happens, I predict that could be the most dramatic thing he will have done during his tenure as CM. As far as the young Bilawal Bhutto Zardari is concerned, I predict that his command of Urdu will continue to improve though it is unlikely that he will start writing Urdu poetry any time soon.

Other relatively safe predictions are that Malala Yusufzai will not win a Nobel Prize and no Pakistani film will win an Oscar, and that the Kashmir problem will not be solved either. India will not become the most favoured nation but will remain the most hated nation or at best a close second to the US. About Afghanistan I predict that for most of us in Pakistan, after NATO forces leave and another presidential election is held, the question will be, who is Karzai and is it the name of a drone? About Bhai sahib sitting in London, it is quite obvious that he will stay there for the foreseeable future.

As far as minor problems like inflation, religious extremism, sectarian violence, suicide bombings and pervasive corruption are concerned, I can safely predict that they will all still be here quite unchanged.

The writer has practised and taught medicine in the US. He can be reached at smhmbbs70@yahoo.com