Daily Times

Pakistan’s cotton production is forecast to slump to less than five million bales this year, the lowest in 23 years. Experts have raised concerns that the country, one of the world’s five major cotton exporters, may even need to import its cotton to meet domestic demand.

More than two-thirds of Pakistan’s population depend on agriculture for their livelihoods; cotton-related exports account for a whopping 55% of all foreign exchange earnings. In the last decade, however, cotton production has shrunk to half its size from 13.6 million bales in 2011/12 to a meagre 5 million in 2023. Cotton production was already declining when government incentives pushed farmers to switch to more lucrative crops such as rice and sugarcane. Cotton prices, on the other hand, have remained consistently low, causing local micro-environments to become less and less suitable for cotton production.

It is believed that global warming is to blame for this dramatic decrease. With each successive monsoon season, more volatile and ruthless than the last, strong rains erode the pink-bollworm resistance that genetically modified cotton needs to thrive.

Pakistan experienced its worst floods to date last year, ruining thousands of hectares of cultivatable cropland in key production areas such as Sindh and Punjab. This has also compounded the crisis in the textile sector, driving unemployment to unmanageable levels and forcing around 65% of textile spinning mills to shut down entirely.

If the cotton industry has any shot at surviving the next decade, we must lay the groundwork for an immediate shift towards more sustainable forms of cotton production. Currently, Pakistan spends very little on the research and development of genetic engineering, a crucial tool for adapting crop patterns to our ever-changing climate. Higher temperatures remain a challenge but can be mitigated with innovative seed varieties that are able to resist heat more effectively. The climate threat to cotton will only continue to mount as time goes by. It is predicted that approximately half of all cotton is set to experience higher exposure to drought while the remainder is at a heightened risk of wildfire-related damages. There has never been a better time to act decisively. *