Daily Times

For the world superpowers, the battlegrounds are changing evolving and become evermore complex with the passage of time. Warfare over the past three decades has evolved multidimensionally. The new battlegrounds are not limited to just a battlefield where two armies meet and kinetic engagement follows, rather, there are multiple battlegrounds, each unique and more complicated than the other. The contemporary wars and the wars of the future will be fought in the mind of an individual, on the screens of devices being held by these individuals, in the streets of belligerent states, in the legislatures of the enemy states, in the civil societies of contending nations, in the data banks of the foes, in the economic hubs of the rivals, in the space above the and even in the deep seas, so on and so forth. It is not an unreasonable assessment to say that everything that we as an individual, society or nation interact with, can be turned into a weapon with the right application of relevant social or technological agency.

The United States of America constituted a special task force dubbed as ‘Special Competitive Studies Project’ (SCSP) with the intention of assessing the threat from China and other hostile nations and how to counter these threats effectively. The project was Chaired by Dr. Eric Schmidt (Ex-CEO Google) and Mr Ylli Bajraktari, (President & CEO SCSP). It is quite interesting how the ex-CEO of Google, was chosen to lead a Defense assessment project. This clearly shows the significance of the cyber space and involvement of technology in the wars that are happening and are yet to come. If we look at the profile of Mr Bajraktari, he is the Executive Director (National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence) and has held various positions such as Chief of Staff to National Security Advisor of the United States LTG McMaster, and in other capacities with the department of defense in the United States. A testimony to the fact that warfare is increasingly technology driven and needs input not just from military analysts but from tech gurus, to create a comprehensive and accurate assessment as required.

The first lesson that Pakistan may derive from this whole exercise that the United States conducted is that we have a saturated lot of defense analysts and think tank academics who have been working on formulation of security and defense landscape of Pakistan. However, Pakistan needs to diversify its efforts, and involve analysts, professionals with tech background to assess its defense capabilities. Although many efforts are in progress and the Armed Forces are actively deploying and enhancing their cyber and Artificial Intelligence capabilities, however, gap remains when it comes to involvement of such analysts at the policy making or academic level. We are not producing enough literature or research to serve as foundation and guidelines for the warfare of the future.

The second lesson is technological superiority to outpace, outmaneuver, outsmart and consequently out gun our adversary. Although no one publicly acknowledges this anymore, however, India remains a primary threat to Pakistan’s existence. Terrorism, instability, is all a consequence of Indian activities to keep us in turmoil. Anyone to deny that is either delusional or simply and deliberately doesn’t want to see the light of day. For Pakistan to effectively contend with India, to deter, or defend, technological advancement to improve kinetic and non-kinetic capabilities, is the way to go. This will reduce our dependence on a large standing army that requires vast number of resources to maintain and will consequently help us achieve the required parity at all tactical, operational and strategic levels of war.

The third lesson is that Pakistan is actively experiencing Armed conflict via the proxies of its enemies, particularly India, however, there is an increased possibility to see attacks below the conflict level. This includes disinformation campaigns, political manipulation, sabotage and espionage enabled by upcoming technologies. The leadership of Pakistan must be mentally prepared for unconventional means of war that will continue to be a nuisance if not predicted and averted effectively. Complacency regarding such acts of aggression is a possibility if not acknowledged by the military planners which will only increase vulnerability of Pakistan in peace and especially during a hot war.

Fourth lesson is the individualization of war. A relatively new concept, which talks about how targets can be achieved by focusing on individuals of the enemy group. Using disinformation, psychological warfare, blackmail, cyber-attacks including hacking, biological warfare against individuals, to cause significant damage to the enemy. This exercise or operation is dubbed as micro-targeting. This is a threat and an opportunity as well. Micro-targeting is a threat to decision making during war and peace, however, if used to our advantage can cripple enemy command and control on a critical level. Micro-targeting with the help of AI will boost our capability to sort and sift through large number of data, to find weaknesses and gaps among enemy commanders, leaders, and other persons of interest.

The fifth lesson is the protection of national infrastructures, particularly in the cyber space. The enemy is aggressively attacking our databases and critical cyber infrastructures to acquire sensitive data, although we are aware of this threat but there can be improved cyber security by involving private tech firms and contractors to enhance our capabilities at par with the global norms.

The sixth lesson is the integration of humans and machines for effective decision-making and enhanced output on the strategic, operational, and tactical levels of war. New technologies allow us to perceive the battle space and the environment in a more meaningful, logical, efficient manner, which translates into better real time response to crises and planning even during peace. Availability of data and the application of AI to sort and sift through data gives enhanced awareness to leaders, decision and policy makes as well. New technologies will also create some hurdles for the decision makers, as it is becoming evermore difficult to differentiate between truth and falsehood. Deception through technologies like deepfakes will hamper the decision-making process even more.

The seventh lesson is the use of AI in wargaming. AI is now being used by DARPA, to wargame scenarios with the enemy in case of a war. Such an exercise if incorporated can enhance performance, improve coordination, and highlight weaknesses that maybe human mind might not be able to before. Incorporation of AI into wargaming is the future of planning at all levels of war.

These are few lessons for Pakistan to be employed immediately to effectively counter the threat it faces particularly from the east. The enemy can never be underestimated, and for our own survival and war preparedness, we must integrate emerging technologies along with incorporating new aspects of warfare to achieve national security objectives.

The writer is a Digital Communications specialist, and a Defense and Security Enthusiast. He tweets @haiderwrites10