Daily Times

Consumers rely on market certainty to invest. Investment doesn’t necessarily come in the form of big chunks of money in large corporations. Looking towards the essentials market, or even towards a gold market, consumer behaviour is strongly indicating the rise of uncertainty.

This dates back to 2022, when fluctuations in a heavily guarded market accompanied the advent of extraordinary steps to help curb fears of stagflation or, worse-a recession. Even though recession fears are mostly behind us, fears of other economic downfalls still loom. On a macroeconomic scale, consumers are facing the consequences of governments and central banks scrambling to control the global economy’s influence on central banks. Up until Q3 of last year, a large part of the market segment was encouraged to spend and spend generously on goods and services, helping the better part of the economy stay afloat, citing the exclusivity of luxury goods, in a market meant for low-income streams.

This year, after the New Year and the talk surrounding a cooled 2023 financial environment, consumers are taking to their bank accounts to manage a long-term savings account, rather than spend hastily like the world is ending-quite literally. High interest rates-which after the US have also affected Pakistan, where the state bank is battling to downplay a defaulting crisis-are also a major driver of what consumer shifts are indicating. This is the sort of market where stocks are an accurate indicator of how the performance of multiple economies affects day-to-day prices.

Low-income households are at a general standstill, not sure where to look next. Governments are two-faced on the issue of spending, while largely incentivizing large corporations that are not passing down the incentives to their consumers.

Low-income households are at a general standstill, not sure where to look next. Governments are two-faced on the issue of spending, while largely incentivizing large corporations that are not passing down the incentives to their consumers. A new report from CreditCards.com highlighted the significance of rising credit card debt around the world, but specifically in the US. After years of spending through stimulus checks and subsidies through supply booms-folks are now depending on what is a “credit card extravaganza”-where consumers are getting dragged into more debt-a whopping 72%-and extra debt from a side loan is needed to pay overdraft fees, which is not yet facilitated by banks on a scale like this.

Debt has a large hand in crafting this stagnation-not stagflation-which could cripple numbers this year. People believe that storing their wealth in banks and stocks could ensure them higher returns, or at least a stable cash inflow, as and when it is required. Forecasting a long-run consumption offer by the consumer leads them to acquire amounts of money that they would usually not require. This improbability is caused by high unemployment combined with disparate deflation in different economies, and the resulting fears of a future deficit are what are rattling the markets further into a fear-driven category.

Pakistan’s GDP is expected to rise by 2% this fiscal year, according to an estimate at the World Bank. This is a nation already grappling with the ongoing economic downfalls of the Pandemic, and struggling to find enough energy to keep the lights on for its population of nearly 220 million, which is at its breaking point. The growth doesn’t seem to be accounted for by consumer spending, nor the indifferent demand for gold and currency reserves by the consumer-who is now forming a small-scale household economy, focusing on putting the next meal on the table until they are available. The growing GDP comes with the persistence of a high CPI, at almost 25% YoY. One egg costs almost half a dollar, and this is a generous estimate of just how bad things are for the debt crisis.

On a national scale, Pakistan’s authorities are trying to combat its debt ceiling issues. According to a recent study, Pakistan’s public debt is approximately PKR 62.46 trillion. Unproductive uses of loans and insignificant borrowings from many entities around the world are what brought Pakistan here. But of course, more loans are just being taken out of the reserve to make matters worse, and gain as much distinct sympathy as possible to generate what could be economic revenge on the horizon; though this is a discussion for another day.

Consumers see themselves at a crossroads. No utility is gained from the spending being pursued at the moment since most of the goods and services are either very minute in a larger marketplace, or not part of the means to appreciate the value of the debt loaned. In a litmus test for central banks, this debt crisis is close to the finish line-which doesn’t necessarily mean all stakeholders will come out triumphant. Further internal loans directed to private banks in a near-collapsed economy are essential for maintaining economic independence in Pakistan, citing the unorthodox nature of investment through interest rate policy in the South-Asian country and the impact of this inverse relationship in the overall expansionary demand-side situation.

The writer is a columnist and a linguistic activist.