Daily Times

Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, has been restive since winter dawned in November 2013. Thousands of people were mobilised to demand the president of the country sign a comprehensive trade agreement with the European Union (EU). President Viktor Yanukovych, elected three years ago, defied the pressure and instead opted for closer ties with Russia. EU emissaries visited Kiev and tried to persuade the president to be a European trade partner. These visits further galvanised the demonstrators camped out in the snow. President Yanukovych believed, and he was not alone, that because Ukraine lies between the EU and Russia, each side must have an interest in controlling it, and therefore that smart geopolitics involves turning them against each other.

The EU was not willing to offer loans until Ukraine agreed to legislative reforms demanded by Brussels. Nor was it likely that Russia would offer large sums unless Yanukovych agreed to join Russia’s federation, which would mark the end of his rule as well as the end of Ukraine as a sovereign country. As pressure from the streets of Kiev mounted, President Yanukovych flew to China and Oleksandr Turchynov became the interim president.

The Russian government watched developments in Ukraine with deep anxiety. It was once a part of the Soviet Union and housed stockpiles of nuclear arsenals. Almost 46 million ethnic Russians formed a significant community. Crimea, located in the southeast corner of the country, has several naval bases with Russian troops. Over 60 percent of the Crimean population is ethnic Russian and another 15 percent Tatar Muslims. Russian territory surrounds Ukraine from the north to the east. The ethnic Russian population in Ukraine lives in the regions adjoining the borders with Russia.

Moscow condemned the foreign-inspired agitation and replacement of an elected president in Ukraine, and expressed concern at the safety of ethnic Russians in Crimea. The Crimean local government, which felt unease at the removal of Yanukovych, decided to follow Russia. It scheduled a referendum on March 16 on whether the people in Crimea would like to join the Russian federation as opposed to remaining a part of Ukraine. The Ukrainian government declared the referendum illegal and asked the people to stay away from it. However, according to Russian and Crimean government sources, people overwhelmingly opted in favour of the Russian federation. Two days later, the Duma, the Russian parliament, welcomed the outcome of the referendum and ratified Crimea’s annexation to the federation. The Duma thus reversed the decision of former prime minister Nikita Khrushchev who, in 1954, transferred Crimea to Ukraine.

Addressing the Duma following the ratification of Crimean annexation, Russian President Vladimir Putin looked back to the Soviet era and admitted that the Tatars were unfairly expelled to Central Asia by Stalin, comparing their sufferings to the Russians. Putin assured the Tatars that he felt their pain and asked them to trust him when he said their rights will be safe now. Putin expressed anguish at the collapse of the Soviet Union and claimed that its disintegration made “Russians one of the biggest, if not the biggest, ethnic group in the world to be divided by borders.” He cautioned the Ukrainians: “Do not believe those who want you to fear Russia, claiming that other regions will follow Crimea down the road of annexation.” In the same breath, Putin questioned the legitimacy of the border with Ukraine and chastised the Bolsheviks for drawing the border without regard for the Russian population in the eastern regions. He said, “The guarantee of Ukraine’s territorial integrity depends on Kiev’s commitment to Russians’ rights (in Ukraine) being fully protected.” President Putin thus sent a message to the leaders of neighbouring countries as well to the western world that Moscow would have the right to intervene in Ukraine and, by extension, anywhere it considers ethnic Russians are threatened.

Meanwhile, Russian troops began taking over military bases in Crimea one after another with little resistance. Ukraine’s armed forces of about 130,000 did not stand a chance against a military seven times bigger. Ukraine’s defence minister has assured arranging a safe corridor to bring its soldiers home. However, half of Ukraine’s troops in Crimea have opted to join the Russian army. Public demonstrations in cities in the northern and eastern regions expressing solidarity with Moscow have been reported. Moscow has issued 5,000 Russian passports to residents in Crimea and the Russian ruble has been introduced as legal currency this week. Police, civil defence and other government structures in Crimea have been instructed to follow Russian law and procedures. Crimean annexation by Russia is now complete and perhaps irreversible.

Russia has mobilised around 30,000 combat troops along its border with Ukraine. Any resistance by Ukraine’s military will risk provoking a ground and air invasion from north and east, which might spell the end of Ukraine as an independent country. This will also allow Russian troops to move deep into Transnistria, a narrow strip of land wedged between Moldova and southwest Ukraine, which proclaimed independence in 1990 and sought unification with Russia in 2006. Transnistria has its own constitution and currency where pro-Russian sentiments run high. About 1,200 Russian troops are stationed in the territory.

The US and its European allies have reacted in the traditional way. Russia has been expelled from the G-8 and economic sanctions have been imposed on it. European countries, especially the UK and France, have billions of dollars worth of arms deals with Russia and they will not risk losing these in joining the sanctions. Germany receives one third of its gas from Russia and would not like to take any step that will disrupt its energy supply. Other members of the EU are reluctant to take action that will cause long-term damage to ties with Moscow. Russian banks and companies had withdrawn billions of dollars of deposits from US and European banks on the eve of sanctions. Russia has a huge economy and it can withstand the impact of western sanctions for a long time.

President Obama has advanced diplomacy over bellicosity in settling international disputes. On top of it all he wants to concentrate on ‘nation-building at home’. This scaling back of ambition resonates with public opinion. A recent survey found that, by a margin of 56 to 29 percent, Americans preferred “not to get too involved” in the Ukrainian situation.

Those who are now condemning Russia for invading and annexing Crimea are guilty of similar crimes committed in the past. The US invaded Grenada in 1982 and occupied Iraq in 2002 in flagrant violation of international law. The invasion of Iraq brought colossal damage to the country and the people of Iraq are still paying the price. If Charles Taylor, Slobodan Milosevic and Radovan Karadzic could stand trial in the international court for committing crimes against humanity, George W Bush should also be tried for similar crimes. There can be no selective condemnation of invasion of another country or selective trials of crimes committed. If this were accepted as a principle in international relations, it would reset the conduct of superpowers and promote peace in the world.

The author is a former official of the United Nations