Daily Times

Most commentators seem convinced that Narendra Modi, the former chief minister of the state of Guajarat, will become India’s next Prime Minister (PM). Though the outcome of the elections will not be known for several weeks, the ruling Congress Party and its coalition partners look exhausted after almost a decade in power at the Centre. Modi is a populist pragmatist whose home state saw double-digit economic growth during his tenure. With India’s economic growth beginning to stagnate, this is a compelling platform for him to run on, as are his appeals to Indian nationalism and image as a ‘strong’ leader, willing to stand up for India’s place in the world. His recent showboating in election rallies about acting ‘tough’ with China and Pakistan seems focused on boosting that image. While they have raised some eyebrows in the region, statements such as, “I swear by this land that I will not let this nation be destroyed, I will not let this nation be divided, I will not let this nation bow down,” seem more like sound-bites for the press and supporters in the run up to elections rather than foreign policy stances. Modi’s reign in Gujarat saw some of the worst communal massacres in recent Indian history, when up to 4,000 Muslims there were massacred by Hindu fundamentalists, the core support of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). However, Modi didn’t preside over Gujarat’s exceptional economic growth by being a believer. Chinese investment in Gujarat is substantial and he made four trips to China himself during his tenure. His attitude towards Pakistan seems focused on securing India against militancy and terrorism that might originate there. Some observers say he looks at Pakistan in a ‘big brotherly’ fashion. This may appeal to Pakistani PM Nawaz Sharif who has reached out to India before, his landmark meetings with former Indian PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1999 being a case in point, and made improving ties with India part of his election platform.

China appears supremely unconcerned; an article in a Chinese daily said that “China-bashing wouldn’t shake ties,” referring to Modi’s statements. China’s trade with India has expanded from $ 15 billion to over $ 100 billion since 2007, and while territorial disputes exist, both sides are engaged in dialogue on those issues. Similarly, expanding trade between India and Pakistan makes economic sense, and while Pakistan is deferring a policy commitment until a new government is formed in Delhi, given their track record, the BJP and Modi are more likely to cooperate than Congress, provided Pakistan controls its terrorist problem. While comment on policy is at this point a matter of speculation, pragmatism may be the most positive outcome of the Indian elections for people on both sides of the border. *