Daily Times

Across the globe the post-US forces’ withdrawal from Afghanistan is a serious issue of debate among policy makers, journalists, scholars and other sections of society. Yet no one has a concrete solution to deal with the post-withdrawal challenges. Although the US government, as earlier maintained, will keep nine military posts, at present the nature, character and number of troops present at these posts are being kept secret. All these efforts are, as suggested, to establish peace in Afghanistan, which is dystopia, not because the Afghans will start fighting among themselves (they may) but because outside powers and neighbours will re-engage them in such a situation. This situation may not occur immediately but after a gap of some time this is bound to happen because of the self-interests of external powers and Afghanistan’s neighbour in keeping the country war-torn.
Due to its geographical location, Afghanistan has been the victim of continuous interference by external actors since 530 BC. Invaders used it as a means to retain their linkages and establish control over Asia. In their interests, they radicalised the tribal society in the name of religion, ethnicity and other primordial identities. Once the groups were radicalised with the idea of enemy ‘others’ for competing group(s), tensions compounded, which led to intermittent war among them. In inter-ethnic wars, the Afghan groups were politically and materially being supported by one or the other country. Often, Afghanistan has been used as a playground to fight wars between external powers, with Afghans being used as pawns by both sides. In modern times it is not that the sides that used Afghanistan for their interests gained a lot; they too have paid for their acts. Rasul Baksh Rais writes that the Afghan war is one of those wars in which every actor involved lost, sooner or later. The Soviet Union collapsed, the Kabul regime withered away with communism and the mujahideen factions fought for years, paving the way for the Taliban. The US faced attacks on September 11, 2001, the Taliban were in turn forced out from power and Pakistan continues to face legacies in terrorism and in the Taliban insurgency in the tribal regions.
Unfortunately, no one is ready to learn from Afghanistan’s history. Most of the post-US withdrawal debates are one-sided and focus on how to secure the interests of a particular country instead of how to establish peace in war-ravaged Afghanistan. The US, India and China, to name a few, have economic interests in Afghanistan while Pakistan and others have only strategic interests. The stakeholders are not ready to cooperate between themselves to establish peace in Afghanistan. In this situation, contests, competition and clashes in post-withdrawal Afghanistan are inevitable; once that starts, Afghanistan will, after some time, go back to post-1979 or post-9/11 mode. For instance, India and Pakistan have been two major players in Afghanistan since 1947, and they are going to remain so because of their respective interests against each other. India wants to secure its economic interests while, for its strategic interests, Pakistan does not want India to settle down in Afghanistan. To unsettle India, Pakistan has used various means, and can use all available means in future. One of their effective means is to use terrorist groups to carry out attacks. Carlotta Gall has established the fact about the symbiotic relationship between a few members of Pakistani intelligence and the Haqqani group. This will increase tensions between the two nuclear neighbours, which may lead them to either fight directly or use Afghan groups to fight their covert war. In both situations, Afghanistan and Afghans are going to suffer.
Is there a way to tackle the upcoming challenges in Afghanistan? The best move that a well-wisher of Afghanistan can carve out is to leave this country to its fate, with no policies or political formulae decided by outsiders. Left alone, it is possible that the Taliban reinvigorate themselves, the warlords start fighting amongst themselves and the country reach the tenterhook of complete collapse. The churning process may take years, decades or even more. These will not be new things taking place in the history of modern nation states. Almost all states, including the most successful democracy and most powerful economy, have passed through this sort of litmus test. After decolonization, almost all countries in the developing world fell into the hands of brutal military dictators but people fought back and took their own decisions without any significant help from outside powers. Yes, due to Afghanistan’s location, there will be a spillover effect on its neighbours, which has to be effectively managed.
Sadly, going by historical evidence and looking at the future preparations of external and regional powers, it is wishful thinking to expect that these forces will restrain themselves from interfering in Afghanistan. Till now, US soldiers have managed to stop themselves from entering into deep engagement with the Afghan muddle; once they withdraw, other countries too, with their nasty ploys, may compete to make Afghanistan fall under their sphere of influence.

The writer is a PhD student in South Asian Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University. He specialises in Indian internal security and foreign policy as well as regional water conflicts