Daily Times

Many observers, including myself, have doubted our Prime Minister’s (PM’s) resolve to fight terrorism. Some even suggested that as long as the terrorists left Punjab alone, the PM was quite willing to leave them alone. More importantly, there was this belief that our PM was not just afraid physically of the terrorists but was perhaps actually on their side on the inside. In retrospect, it is obvious that the PM probably was never really for an all out assault against the Tehreek-e-Taliban-Pakistan (TTP) but his strategy of ‘peace talks’ so far has managed to contain them and possibly produce a split between them as is evident from the recent infighting between the different TTP factions. Whether this will lead to long-term peace remains to be seen. However, it seems that the PM is not quite that devoid of strategic thinking as he has often been accused of.
It might even seem that the PM is playing the classic ‘good cop, bad cop’ game with the Taliban; he is the good cop while the army is the bad cop. The more we see, the more it seems that at least as far as the Taliban are concerned, the PM and the army are on the ‘same page’. What is going on between the army and the PM is more a matter of ‘growing pains’ than any serious disagreement about policy. These ‘disagreements’ include the Musharraf trial as well as the recent problems between the biggest media house and the army. As far as I am concerned once personal and institutional egos are put aside, these differences will be sorted out.
However it is important to remember that the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is a party that derives its strength from Punjab and, as such, represents Punjab’s interests even though at times it would seem to be at the expense of the federation. Punjabis in general support the army and are also generally religiously conservative. An army made up mostly of people from Punjab is also likely to be relatively conservative when it comes to religious matters. That does not mean that the army is going to allow the federation to be imperilled by religious extremists. At the same time, the PML-N will definitely not go against an army that is popular in Punjab.
So what about the Taliban? Clearly the talks between the PML-N government and the Taliban are in the doldrums. Our minister of the interior who was representing the government in these talks has sort of disappeared from public view and so have other members of the ‘jaw-jaw’ committees. Perhaps this is just an interregnum where both sides are waiting to see what happens in Afghanistan after the US forces draw down and a new Afghan president takes over. Or, perhaps, the TTP has indeed been weakened after its recent internecine fights and is therefore more amenable to a peace with the Pakistani government.
The unfortunate fact, as has been recently demonstrated, is that the TTP is not a monolith. It has many components and some of them are outside its immediate control. These might include some jihadist factions as well as the religious extremists that are still involved in killing Shias and other minorities as well as so-called liberals. So even if the TTP is willing to make peace, the question will still remain whether these ‘splinter’ groups under its ‘umbrella’ will stop doing what they are doing at present. Sadly, it is unlikely and the reason is that many of these groups find support within Punjab where the PML-N is, at present, not willing to antagonise them for political reasons or in the interest of the personal safety of its own leaders.
From a law and order perspective it is becoming progressively clear that the major problem for ordinary Pakistanis are not those members of the TTP that are presently fighting for some sort of an ‘autonomous’ area under their control in the tribal areas. The real threats are the extremists that are killing minorities in the name of religion and, more importantly, are fighting to take over Karachi as the ‘cash cow’ to subsidise their activities. Pacification of Karachi and suppression of the ‘home bases’ of the so-called ‘Punjabi Taliban’ will be the real challenge facing the PML-N government at the Centre as well as in Punjab.
From a political point of view, the PML-N is threatened by the parties on its right, especially Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) and its coalition partner in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI). So, the PML-N can ill afford to go out openly against extremist groups that are often backed by many conservative Muslims in Punjab. However, based upon the major electoral victory the PML-N obtained in the 2013 elections in Punjab, it would seem that alienating some extremely conservative Muslims in Punjab is unlikely to dent the PML-N’s electoral majority any time soon.
If then the PML-N government is actually willing to confront the religious extremists and restore some semblance of normalcy to Pakistan, in such an endeavour the Pakistan army will fully support this government. And that brings me to the latest order by the PM to the army to assure that all those who enter the ‘settled areas’ of Pakistan from the tribal areas must be inoculated against polio.
This could well be a brilliant strategic move. Without bringing the problem of terrorism into the equation, basically the PM has ordered the army to monitor all movement from the tribal areas into the rest of the country. What the army does with this is then up to the army. This could of course mean one of two things. Either no terrorists will be allowed to enter settled areas from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) or else the next person who shoots a Shia in Lahore or blows himself up in Peshawar will have been inoculated against polio. What a relief either way!

The writer has practiced and taught medicine in the US. He can be reached at smhmbbs70@yahoo.com