Daily Times

Thailand is living up to its notoriety as the land of coups. There have been about 12 successful military coups in the country since the thirties and a few unsuccessful ones too — an estimated 19 in all, give or take a few. The recent one with the army taking over the running of the country might, therefore, fall into a familiar pattern. However, this one appears to have been carefully crafted over a few months as part of a concerted plan by the country’s elite establishment, comprising the military, the opposition Democrat Party and elements of the monarchy, to depose the country’s duly elected government led by Prime Minister (PM) Yingluck Shinawatra. The country’s Bangkok-based elite establishment never came to terms with the results of Thailand’s periodic elections over the last decade, which regularly returned to power the Shinawatras, first the brother, Thaksin Shinawatra (deposed in a coup in 2006 and forced into exile to escape his conviction on corruption charges) and lately his sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, who won a landslide victory in the 2011 election.

The well-orchestrated and organised protests against her government started last November when she sought to push through legislation that would have the effect of pardoning her brother to enable him to return to Thailand at some appropriate time. The organised chaos thus created gave the army an opportunity to equate the protesting crowds with a government that was not functional, being rendered so by the powerful forces ranged against it. The organisers of the chaos and their foot soldiers, the Yellow Shirts, held the government to ransom, demanding its replacement by an appointed prime minister. Since Yingluck refused to oblige, the courts were co-opted to convict her for some bizarre excuse of preferring the appointment of one official over another after she became PM. This would hardly constitute an offence to bring down an elected prime minister. But the government still refused to go as they appointed another cabinet minister to act as PM to replace Yingluck. At the same time, the supporters of the government, the Red Shirts, were assembling for large-scale protests. The army could no longer play shadow games of neutrality and decided to come out by staging a coup, and rounding up government ministers and others critical of the military’s action. The opposition Democrat Party, having completed its allotted role of creating chaos and helping the army to get rid of Yingluck Shinawatra, has now withdrawn, joyous that they have accomplished their objective. Yingluck was seen as her brother’s proxy in the PM’s seat; he was believed to be governing the country via remote control. The powerful hold of the Shinawatra dynasty over voters in the country’s rural and regional belt in the north was secured through provision of healthcare, economic subsidies and cheap loans, which is being held against the deposed PM, among other things. Because the Shinawatras have such a popular hold on the rural voters, the Bangkok-based establishment believe that Thailand is not cut out for democracy. But the removal of the Yingluck government needed a game plan, and that is where the opposition Democrat Party, regularly trounced in elections, came into the picture with its self-appointed leader, Suthep Thaugsuban, putting himself in the lead role of staging and leading protests by Yellow Shirts as supporters of the monarchy.

The leader of the army coup, General Prayuth Chan-ocha, has evoked an archaic hundred year old law to assume sweeping powers, including the right to arrest anyone and everyone that challenges the army’s rule. The military junta has named itself the National Council for Peace and Order, reminding one of the dreadful Burmese military junta calling itself the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) that ran amuck for a long time. It looks like the Thai army rule is going to be around for a fairly long time, now that they have secured the endorsement of the ailing 86-year old Thai king. This will make Thailand’s venerated monarchy increasingly partisan and controversial in a polarised country. There is something quite odious about this new coup, with the coup leader talking of setting up ‘reconciliation’ centres so that people with different ‘ideologies’ can be reformed under army dispensation or else sent to detention centres. Putting an Orwellian spin on detentions of political leaders, General Prayuth reportedly said they were staying together “to love and be at peace” with each other. The army has taken upon itself the task of ‘saving the country’ once again, characterising the protesting Red Shirts and other critics of the army as unpatriotic. As for journalists, particularly foreign correspondents, one army officer reportedly said, “Foreign correspondents are scoundrels. They are here to sell Thailand.”

The country is deeply polarised, with the north and northeast regions angry at the power grab by the military and the country’s Bangkok-based establishment. The deposed government’s supporters, the Red Shirts, will particularly face the army’s wrath if they continue with their protests while the Yellow Shirts, keen to get rid of the Yingluck government, had all the time in the world to create chaos, thus providing the army with an excuse and opportunity to stage the coup. The army might succeed in suppressing the pro-democracy forces but it will not solve the core problem of how to make Thailand governable through democratic institutions without the army staging periodic coups in the name of the king and the country. Thailand stands at a crossroads. There are two scenarios that might further prolong the country’s agony. First, there has been some talk of setting up a Thai government-in-exile under the leadership of Thaksin Shinawatra or with his support. Second, with the army’s hardline approach likely to lead to violence and killings of the Red Shirts, the anti-army movement might go underground to start an insurrection that is likely to do much damage to the Thai economy, damaging investor confidence and drying up the lucrative tourist trade. While the army has a lot to answer for, one might mention that the Shinawatra family, particularly Thaksin Shinwatra, was not an ideal democratic leader. Starting his career as a policeman and going on to become a billionaire telecom tycoon, he made use of his position as PM to further enrich himself and his family through questionable means. He was authoritarian and sought to stifle opposition and the media through fear. But the best counter for the opposition and the forces ranged against him is to win over the people and not to rely on the army to stage a coup(s).

Thailand is living up to its notoriety as the land of coups. There have been about 12 successful military coups in the country since the thirties and a few unsuccessful ones too — an estimated 19 in all, give or take a few. The recent one with the army taking over the running of the country might, therefore, fall into a familiar pattern. However, this one appears to have been carefully crafted over a few months as part of a concerted plan by the country’s elite establishment, comprising the military, the opposition Democrat Party and elements of the monarchy, to depose the country’s duly elected government led by Prime Minister (PM) Yingluck Shinawatra. The country’s Bangkok-based elite establishment never came to terms with the results of Thailand’s periodic elections over the last decade, which regularly returned to power the Shinawatras, first the brother, Thaksin Shinawatra (deposed in a coup in 2006 and forced into exile to escape his conviction on corruption charges) and lately his sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, who won a landslide victory in the 2011 election.

The well-orchestrated and organised protests against her government started last November when she sought to push through legislation that would have the effect of pardoning her brother to enable him to return to Thailand at some appropriate time. The organised chaos thus created gave the army an opportunity to equate the protesting crowds with a government that was not functional, being rendered so by the powerful forces ranged against it. The organisers of the chaos and their foot soldiers, the Yellow Shirts, held the government to ransom, demanding its replacement by an appointed prime minister. Since Yingluck refused to oblige, the courts were co-opted to convict her for some bizarre excuse of preferring the appointment of one official over another after she became PM. This would hardly constitute an offence to bring down an elected prime minister. But the government still refused to go as they appointed another cabinet minister to act as PM to replace Yingluck. At the same time, the supporters of the government, the Red Shirts, were assembling for large-scale protests. The army could no longer play shadow games of neutrality and decided to come out by staging a coup, and rounding up government ministers and others critical of the military’s action. The opposition Democrat Party, having completed its allotted role of creating chaos and helping the army to get rid of Yingluck Shinawatra, has now withdrawn, joyous that they have accomplished their objective. Yingluck was seen as her brother’s proxy in the PM’s seat; he was believed to be governing the country via remote control. The powerful hold of the Shinawatra dynasty over voters in the country’s rural and regional belt in the north was secured through provision of healthcare, economic subsidies and cheap loans, which is being held against the deposed PM, among other things. Because the Shinawatras have such a popular hold on the rural voters, the Bangkok-based establishment