Daily Times

In the aftermath of police violence against Minhaj-ul-Quran (MQ) workers in Lahore, the political turmoil has reached a new height. The development is disturbing at many levels. For one, it is the worst state violence against political opponents in decades. Just when, after a democratic transition, there was hope of democratic systems taking hold in the country, this incident has thrown the entire democratic process into uncertainty. The perceived confrontational course on which the PML-N government was with the army had already created fears of a military intervention and this incident will only serve to heighten those fears. At this stage, stability is what Pakistan needs most and a military takeover is the worst thing that can happen. However, it is unfortunate that through his confrontational politics, Nawaz Sharif has brought things to a head-on confrontation with the political entities in the country. It is even more unfortunate that this is happening at a time when the army is engaged in a decisive operation against TTP terrorists in North Waziristan.

What led to this unfortunate event is still unclear. One view is that the police wanted to intimidate MQ workers by removing barriers, the situation got out of hand and the response of the administration on the scene led to this chaotic outcome. Another view is that the PML-N did not want to start an army operation in North Waziristan. With its patience running out, the army cornered Sharif with coordinated mobilisation of political forces, launched the operation on its own and made a cornered Nawaz Sharif sign onto it. Once the operation began, Sharif decided it was time to settle scores with some of the political entities who did the army’s dirty work against the government. Yet another view is that the government feels seriously threatened by the movement launched by Tahir-ul-Qadri, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), PML-Q, MQM, Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC) and Majlis-e-Wahdatul Muslimeen (MWM), and the act represented a desperate act of intimidation by the government to discourage people from joining the movement. And then there is this view that ‘hidden hands’ staged the whole incident to pave the way for an unconstitutional intervention.

Whatever the reason may be, one thing is undeniable: the responsibility for the incident solely lies on the Punjab government. The timing of the crackdown at the MQ office is reason enough to implicate the Punjab government over the incident. The handling of the event and the silence of the top authorities during a nine-hour-long standoff only adds to the gravity of the blame. Through this action, or lack thereof, the Punjab government has brought the country to the brink of a disaster. It is a no-brainer that agitation will intensify against the Sharif government as a result of this incident. The situation is likely to get out of hand, which can potentially lead to the ouster of the Sharif government through unconstitutional means. If the government is ousted, this will lead to counter-agitation by Sharif supporters. A look at the composition of the anti-Sharif movement with MQ, SIC and MWM in it and the fact that PML-N is blamed for its close association with the house of Saud and entities like Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat etc, it is a no-brainer that this agitation and counter-agitation will ultimately lead to an all-out conflict in the country. The army operation against the TTP gives the terrorists an incentive to join hands with its like-minded elements in this conflict. In light of what is happening to our west in Iraq and Syria, this is a very dangerous situation and all stakeholders must give it serious consideration before making any moves.

To save the state of Pakistan in its current form and to save society from a civil war, it is imperative that the system and constitution remain intact. Being at the helm of affairs, the PML-N has the most responsibility for it. Keeping in view the intensity of the situation, it would be wise for Shahbaz Sharif to step down as the Chief Minister and for the PML-N to elect a new Chief Minister for the province. Doing this may be hard for the PML-N but if it is serious in continuing the system, this bitter pill must be swallowed. The PML-N should follow the example of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) in the removal of Yousaf Raza Gillani. At that time, PPP had many legal and political options with which to confront the courts and opposition, yet in the interests of saving the system, Mr Gillani decided to go and the system continued. Sacrificing Shahbaz Sharif may be a high cost but not high enough in the interests of saving the system. The PML-N also needs to reach out to its political opponents to create a broader political consensus on power sharing, federal-provincial relations, and key security issues. And above all, it needs to make amends with the armed forces on key regional and national security issues. The PML-N leadership must realise that civilian supremacy will not come overnight but can only be achieved through the continuation of the system. Saving the system should be the paramount aim of any political government at this juncture. And in case the PML-N continues with its confrontational course with the establishment and political opponents, there lies a huge responsibility on the PPP and PTI to ensure continuation of the system and keep the conflict from blowing up. Both these parties have a lot of stakes in the democratic process and have support bases spread across sects. With the grave challenge ahead, both parties need to coordinate among themselves to save the system and society. What awaits us looks grim. However, I have always had this belief that we have more political maturity as a state and society than the Middle East. I hope my belief is not unfounded.

The writer is a freelance columnist and may be contacted at aalimalik@gmail.com