Daily Times

We have to draw inspiration from our centuries-old heritage of dispute resolution. It is “Pariya” or “Panchayat” in Sind and Punjab and “Jirga” in KP and Baluchistan. It is equivalent to a Council of Elders. Historically conflicts have ended only two ways. Either one’s foe is entirely vanquished into submission, or a compromise is reached by sitting around a table. A vanquished foe has to concede; while negotiations in good faith by all stakeholders can yield results.

What is at stake here? It is our national survival. We are moving towards an economical meltdown. Complaints about 25 per cent inflation prevailing will evaporate in face of what is coming in the next two months. Prices will spiral to levels beyond comprehension. This is no propaganda; this analysis is based on facts. Many of our staple foods are imported. I will elaborate on one item to paint the picture; lentils.

“Daal” is a poor man’s source of proteins. Due to consistent failures of successive regimes in agriculture, we did not enhance local production. Hence nearly 90 per cent of our needs are imported from Canada, Australia, Turkey and a few other countries.

Established importers and stockists developed trade relations with suppliers. Based on their track record, exporters would ship goods against documents rather than letters of credit. Freight would be paid by local importers. However in the last few months, when shipments reached Karachi, Pakistani banks were either short on dollars or unwilling to release them. It led to shipments languishing at the ports for long periods incurring demurrage and other charges. The purchase of dollars in open markets was not feasible. Many importers abandoned their shipments. This is going to lead to shortages as existing stocks are depleted. Corrupt mafias will make a killing at the expense of the consumer. The burnt exporters are refusing to supply without letters of credit; which no bank is willing to open.

Food riots are just around the corner once the debacle triggers superinflation.

Expand this scenario to cooking oil, medicines and all other imports. Many of our manufacturers require imported raw materials for their production. Without them the manufacturing industry is nose-diving. Exports are shrinking leading to a diminished inflow of dollars. My explanation may be cumbersome. It is necessary to understand the enormity of the doomsday scenario racing towards us. Local and international markets have lost faith in our economy and ability to survive. Economic instability is a direct consequence of prevalent political instability. We are stuck in a quagmire, a “duldul” that will lead to suffocation. I predict food riots are just around the corner once this debacle triggers superinflation.

What is the solution? Concerted efforts are needed to move towards early free and fair elections to bring sanity to the present self-destruction mode that we are in. Who are the stakeholders? There are two contenders in the political arena; PDM and PTI. Then there is the Establishment and Judiciary that completes the quadrant.

In many of my previous articles, I had warned the non-political stakeholders of the consequences of Pakistan’s runaway train. Unfortunately, it all fell on deaf ears. It is my assessment that the new set-up under the present Chief is fully cognizant of the dire straits we are in. Having seen Chief Ayub Khan onwards, the incumbent is not subservient to carrying on the legacy of the previous one; especially when it is so tainted. General Bajwa’s actions have caused a huge schism between the masses and the Establishment. It is unfortunate and definitely needs to be corrected.

Beyond that, the consequences of an economic meltdown will severely impact our national security. It is not seeking political intervention rather it highlights the need to participate in the course correction desperately needed. This is true for the Judiciary too. In an anarchist situation, rule of law will be the greatest sufferer. A bankrupt economy will make the nation ungovernable and insecure. Mafias and the elite are not bothered. Working classes are being crushed. Beware the day when Army or court employees’ salaries are not paid. This is no time to shut your eyes.

What are political players up to? PTI has all along demanded the path of returning to normalcy; seeking a fair and free mandate. The conflict emanates from the divergence of objectives between PDM and national interest. Led by PML (N) and PPP, this motley crowd is driven by a purely selfish agenda – to whitewash their criminal acts. A huge dry cleaning machine is churning out these cleansed Mafioso on a regular basis.

There is a sinister part of this plot, something I have emphasised all along. It is beginning to emerge now. They are running the economy into a sinkhole. It is not incompetence; it is deliberate. A defaulted nation, despite its nuclear capabilities, has no bargaining chips; they have to surrender to the demands of whoever bails them out.

Negotiations have started. Are they in good faith to move the nation out of this quagmire or to dry-clean the one remaining culprit? There are many moving parts in untangling this complex web spun in the last eight months. PTI has regained ground snatched in April and more has to hold firm. PDM is the elephant in the room. The establishment and judiciary have to make them see the writing on the wall. Doomsday is not far. An economic blow-up will incapacitate all the stakeholders to undo this disaster. Repentance is no solution. Act now.

The writer is the director of CERF, a non-profit, charitable organisation in Canada.